Is it true that Nassim Taleb predicted US withdrawal from NATO?

In early October 2023, posts with the forecast of an American writer, author of the bestseller “Black Swan” were dispersed in social networks. Taleb allegedly claims that the United States will leave the North Atlantic Alliance. We checked if he made such a statement.

American writer of Lebanese descent Nassim Nicholas Taleb Studies The influence of random and unpredictable events on the world economy and exchange trading. In 2007, it came out book-Beseller "Black swan. Under the sign of unpredictability ”, in which Taleb calls non -enlightened events affecting the world, black swans.

Publications with the alleged forecast of the writer about the release of the United States from NATO appeared in Runet on October 9, 2023. How Approved In such posts, Taleb allegedly stated: despite billionth investments, the United States will throw a military bloc, and "the cessation of assistance to Ukraine is the first bell." While the authors of some records They ask At their subscribers, whether they agree with the alleged words of Taleb. So, in the Telegram channel "Russia"(26,000 views at the time of writing this analysis) in the corresponding survey, 4455 people participated, of which 48% (more than 2100 people) agree that the United States will leave NATO. Similar posts appeared in other channels, among which "Special operation z"(94,000 views),"Russia 2.0"(69,000),"Notes of Zhirinovsky"(32 000),"Optimist in civilian clothes"(15,000),"People z"(12 000),"Prigozhin's thoughts in Telegram"(8000) and Belvestnik (3000). Late to the words of supposedly Taleba I referred Telegram channel of the host of Channel One Ruslan Ostashko (110,000 views). Taleb’s forecast records are found in public and personal pages of VKontakte users (examples here, here, here And here), as well as on Rutube.

The earliest publication with the approval under consideration that was able to find “verified” appeared in the Telegram channel “Vzvod"(mentioned In our two analysis) October 9 at 14:02 Moscow time and scored 5,700 views. “[Taleb] believes that the US withdrawal from NATO is just such an unpredictable event that will definitely happen. And they will do this to the noise of developing events in the Middle East. Earlier, the Nassima forecasts came true with high accuracy, ”the post says.

Almost one and a half -minute video is attached to the recording of the VZD, which was supposedly sent by subscribers (using such signatures - a popular method distribution of fakes). It is also found in some other posts. At the beginning and at the end of this video, the BBC News logo appears, and in the upper left corner the emblem of the British broadcasting corporation is posted throughout the video. Below are a translation.

The US exit from NATO is a "black swan." The essayist Nassim Taleb predicts the United States from NATO. The author of the bestseller “Black Swan. Under the sign of unpredictability ”repeatedly stated that humanity is on the verge of a difficultly predictable event that would change everything. According to Nassim Taleb, such an event will be the US exit from NATO. “We are used to thinking that no one will refuse the project in which billions of dollars is invested,” Taleb says. “But this is a mistake.” According to the author, an event that will have the greatest meaning with further analysis is the USA exit from the alliance. The US Congress has already approved the budget for 45 days, which does not include military assistance to Ukraine. According to Nassim Taleb, this is the first signal of the approach of the Black Swan. “Only idiots think that the United States is throwing Ukraine,” the author adds. “They throw NATO.” Earlier, analysts cautiously noted that the attention of the United States could switch to a new military unit - Aukus. It includes, in particular, the UK.

"Verified" studied website, YouTube-Canal and social networks - X (former Twitter), Facebook*, Instagram* - BBC News and did not find a similar video about Taleb's statements there. Moreover, The above In the record of quotes Do not meet On no English -speaking sites. There are no such statements in social networks the writer himself.

In addition, the text of the video contains several typos, errors and stylistic heterogeneities that are uncharacteristic for such a large media as BBC. For example, in one Titre, the line moved to the right, in one sentence the word begins with the title letter after a comma and there is no article, somewhere a comma stands inside the quotation marks, and somewhere beyond their borders, in one fragment there is a hyphen instead of it (at 00:58). The font used in a distributed video differs from what is used in such BBC News video shows - this is most noticeable by the letters A, E, K and G, as well as quotes.

Associated Press Contacted With Taleb himself, and he refuted the statement that appeared in the video that, according to his forecast, the United States can withdraw from NATO. “Full fake. I have never said this, ”the writer answered in an email to reporters. 

The creation of a video imitating the style of famous and authoritative foreign media is a popular practice among fake authors. In the "verified" there are analysis of previously extended fabricated videos allegedly from 20 minutes, Al jazeera, Euronews, DGP, DW**, Reuters And Fox News.

As for the draft temporary budget of the United States for 45 days, accepted Congress September 30, then it really does not include assistance to Ukraine. At the same time, President Joe Biden declaredthat in the future Ukraine will be able to count on American support. “I can assure [Ukraine] that we will achieve this, we will succeed,” he said about the restoration of financing.

Thus, Nassim Taleb did not predict the release of the United States from NATO-information about this appeared in a fake video, mimicing under the BBC News video and supposedly sent by anonymous subscriber of the Russian pro-government Telegram channel.

*Russian authorities They think Meta Platforms Inc., which owns social networks Facebook and Instagram, an extremist organization, its activities in Russia are prohibited.

** Russian authorities They think Deutsche Welle media that performs the functions of a foreign agent.

Photo on the cover: collage "Checked" / @NNTALEB (X)

Fake

What do our verdicts mean?

Read on the topic:

1. Is it true that after the connection of Finland, nuclear weapons were noticed in the Border Vyborg Border Vyborg?
2. AP. Not Real News: A Look At Whatn’t Happen this Week