Is the story of a peasant Vasilyeva, who gave birth to 69 children true?

A story about a peasant woman is popular on the network, who allegedly gave birth to 69 children during the reign of Catherine II: 16 twins, seven triplets and four quarters. We decided to check if there is evidence of this incredible story.

About a prolific Russian peasant woman reported on sites TV channels, in female magazines and on news sites aggregators. Interested in this story and users of entertainment Platforms And public In social networks. Some Authors express justified skepticism, others as confirmation Reference on historical documents. Separate article Dedicated to this plot in the Russian -speaking Wikipedia.

Record About a kind of peasant Vasilyeva, the wife of Fedor Vasiliev, who gave birth to 69 children, really is in the Guinness Book of Records. In total, Vasiliev had 87 children from the first and second wives. The text also notes: “Although this seems statistically unlikely by history, there are numerous sources of those years that indicate that this is true.” In particular, it is mentioned that information about this was transferred to Moscow on February 27, 1782 by Nikolsky Monastery. In addition, Gentleman's Magazine material is given as evidence, in which the English merchant’s message was mentioned, the book of Alexander Bashutsky “Panorama of St. Petersburg” (1834) and the publication of the 1878 Scientific Journal. It is also indicated that the name of this woman is not known for reliably (perhaps her name was Valentine), and she lived up to 76 years. The Guinness Book also stipulates that, although this record should be perceived with the share of skepticism, such fertility can be explained by a genetic predisposition to superoviation (releasing several eggs in one cycle), which significantly increases the likelihood of the birth of twins or several children.

Gentleman's Magazine material and truth exists, a scanned copy can be found using Google Books. It also presents information that out of 87 children Vasiliev, only three did not live to the publication.

The Panorama of St. Petersburg mentioned by the Guinness Book of Records also Real edition. The 75th page tells about the very peasant Vasiliev.

It is noteworthy, the Guinness Book of Records, although it gives a literal quote from it, makes a mistake in it - so, in the original in Russian it is said that in 1782, out of 87 children, 83 are alive, and in the English edition - 82. Article The Lancet also exists and quoted correctly.

In 1788, information about the peasant Vasiliev appeared In the book "Notes on the History of Ancient and Current Russia, Leklerka, composed by Major General Ivan Boltin." There is one additional detail, namely, the monastery is more accurately indicated: "The Nikolaev monastery, on the river Kashirka." The wording from the previous sources “Nikolaev Monastery” did not allow it to identify it, but only one option leaves this description: the Nikolo-Sarto Monastery. It is logical that the monks were not present during all the birth of a peasant woman, but simply redirected information about her to Moscow. 

Consequently, it cannot be excluded that Vasilieva, although she gave birth at that moment, had a small pregnancy (or, for example, not quarters, but twins), and simply issued “additional” children as their own. Of course, no genetic examination on the subject of who those children were to each other and the Vasilyevs were carried out.

If we assume that all the children were genetic descendants of the Vasilyevs, then a number of questions appear from a biological point of view. The formulations of “twins”, “triplets” and “quarter” do not make it possible to judge which types of multiple pregnancy were discussed. The fact is that the appearance of two or more children as a result of one pregnancy may be the result of two different processes. 

Normally, during each cycle, the ovaries produce one egg: for example, the right one “works” in January, and in February the “left”. In fact, not everything is so strict and alternation may not be so consistent. However, at some point it can happen that both ovaries will be active in one cycle and each will produce one egg. This is the supervision mentioned in the Guinness Book of Records. Stimulation of supervision - important stage The modern protocol eco, as it allows you to get several viable eggs at once. This result can be achieved using various combinations of synthetic hormones. Also supervision Maybe To occur after the cancellation of combined oral contraceptives: the ovaries begin to work more actively, and the probability of multiple pregnancy increases. However, in the era, there could be no stimulation of supervision to the spread of reproductive technologies.

During supervision, a chance for multiple pregnancy appears - each sperm is fertilized by each of the eggs, and a separate fruit will develop from each resulting zygot. In this case, we are talking about multi -tier twins - they can be of different sexes and not even resemble each other. The frequency of the birth of such children before the era of reproductive technologies was about one case of 80 genera. Accordingly, the probability of the appearance of three, four or more children decreases exponentially. Eat Factors, increasing the likelihood of this: the age of the mother (older than 30 years), the race (most often among the African peoples, less often among Asian) and multiple pregnancy in previous generations.

The second mechanism, thanks to which two or more children are possible, is the division of zygote into two or more parts shortly after fertilization. In this case, we are talking about one -euthered pregnancy, and children are as similar as possible to each other and are born with the same set of genes. The earlier the separation of the zygote occurs, the more the twins will be isolated from each other.

• If the separation occurs for the first or third day, each twin has his own placenta and is surrounded by his fruit shells (dichorial diamniotic twins).
• If the separation occurs on the fourth-eight day, the placenta will become common, and a septum will occur in an amniotic shell, that is, each fruit will be enclosed in its amniotic bubble (monochorial diamniotic twins).
• If the separation occurs from the eighth for 13 days, then the placenta and the amniotic bubble of the twins will divide (monochorial monoamniotic twins).
• If the separation occurs after 13 days, then the full compartment will not happen and the Siamese twins will develop.

Each type of twins has, firstly, its own frequency of occurrence, and secondly, its own percentage of survival. The fact is that both types of monochorial twins are fraught with such a life-threatening state as feto-phthotal transfusion syndrome. Due to the general placenta, blood flow (and, accordingly, nutrients) can be redistributed in favor of one fruit, depriving another. Syndrome Diagnose In 10-15% of cases from all multiple pregnancies with a total placenta, however, it probably occurs more often and entails the death of one fruit from a pair even until the diagnosis can be confirmed. In the case of two fruits survival One of the pairs ranges from 15% to 70%, both survival of both is about 50% - even with modern treatment. 

However, without detailed information about the type of each of the multiple pregnancies, it is extremely difficult to assess the credibility and statistical probability of the history of the Vasilyevs. The version of the Guinness Book of Records about the genetic tendency of Vasilyeva to superoviation implies exclusively multi -eating twins. However, this hypothesis does not explain the fact that the second wife of Vasiliev was all multiple pregnancy. It can be assumed that the peasant had to randomly choose two women with a similar genetic feature twice, or both could push some kind of general environmental factor to the supervision, which served as a replacement for modern hormonal therapy. 

In general, the second option cannot be completely excluded, but it is very difficult to determine what could become “natural” hormonal therapy. In theory, this could be a specific type of nutrition, brewing some herbs or exposure to the action of some chemical compound obtained from water or the environment. However, modern scientific developments are conducted in laboratories, and no significant experiments on the influence of various natural components are not carried out on the probability of superoviation.

Also, a very rare (but not impossible) explanation of the outstanding fertility of Vasilyeva may be its anatomical feature, which consists in the presence of two completely separate uterus or double uterus (splitting the normal uterine cavity into two merging parts in the lower part of the organ). On the one hand, with such a pathology, the successful conception, bearing and birth of a child is more problematic, on the other hand, this is a chance for a multiple pregnancy, in which each of the fruits will develop in a separate uterus. Such an anatomical feature Found, according to various estimates, with a frequency of 1 to 1000 - 30,000, but the chance of simultaneously gesturing in each of the uterus is only 1 to 1 million. 

In general, such a number of pregnancies (and in total the first wife of Vasiliev, there are 27 of them, and the second has “only” eight), does not look incredible. The data on how many women were at the time of marriage were not preserved. In general, in the XVIII century in the Russian Empire is happening A gradual rejection of super -war marriages. In 1774, the church established a minimum marriage of 13 years for girls and 15 years for boys. Although Vasiliev’s first marriage concluded before this decree, suppose that his wives began to give birth no earlier than average age completion of puberty, that is, at about 16 years old. Multiple pregnancies usually end not in 40 weeks, but earlier. So, Average The time of gestation is 36 weeks (or rather, from 32 to 38, depending on its type), triplets - from 32 to 35, Four - About 29 weeks. Total for all gestation of pregnancies to the first wife of Vasiliev would take from 852 to 969 weeks, or from about 16 to 19 years. Of course, it should be noted here that the pregnancy of Vasilyeva is unlikely to go one after another. Average time recovery ovulation after childbirth - from 45 to 94 days.

But the recovery period can be more - for example, with breastfeeding. The lack of ovulation during breastfeeding is called lactation amenorrhea, in general, this phenomenon is even considered a method of contraception. His efficiency Very high - 98% within six months after childbirth, then below. However, the method of lactation amenorrhea as protection from pregnancy works With the strictest observance of a number of conditions:

• The baby is exclusively on breastfeeding, even without watering with water;
• feeding occurs strictly on demand, without interruptions for more than four hours and six hours at night;
• menstruation did not come.

Even a single feeding of feeding can lead to ovulation and subsequent conception. Accordingly, between the birth and the onset of the next pregnancy, the first wife of Vasiliev could have intervals from one and a half to six months or more. It turns out that by the assessed time for bearing (16-19 years), it is necessary to add 26 such intervals, or from 39 weeks (less than a year) to more than 156 (over three years). All this still fits into the framework of the potentially fertile period in a woman. However, it should be borne in mind that too frequent childbirth and short breaks between them increase the risk of complications when bearing the next pregnancy, although they do not make a successful pregnancy impossible. That is, purely mathematically, Vasiliev’s first wife really could get pregnant and give birth so many times. With the second wife, the picture is even more real: eight pregnancies (six doubles and two triplets) would require only 256 to 298 weeks (from about five to six years old), plus seven breaks between them (from 10 and a half weeks to more than 42 weeks in total). 

Nevertheless, in all these theoretical calculations, another important factor has not been taken into account - the level of obstetric care of those years and, accordingly, infant and maternal mortality. Statistics on these important criteria in the Russian Empire were almost not conducted at the end of the 18th century. However, by data, collected at the end of the 19th century by a doctor Nikolai EKCU, who has prioritized the issue of preventing children's mortality (a child under five), it was more than 15%. There is no reason to believe that the situation was almost 100 years before the analysis of the ECKU was better. It turns out that from the point of view of statistics of 87 children, the five -year survival threshold would only be overcome by 73. However, in general, the Vasiliev could take care of children better than the national average, and therefore their offspring had higher survival.

In addition, in children who were born before the 37th week, the chances of surviving below than the full-term ones. So, with the most modern system for nursing premature mortality Among those born at the 29-32th week is 10%, and on the 33-34th-2%. It turns out that some of the Treen and Quarte with a certain degree of probability were to die in the early neonatal period.

In addition to all of the above, adding details to the assessment of the plausibility of the history of Vasilyeva can study the biography of the most large of the living women - Mariam Nabanji from Uganda, giving birth 44 children, 38 of whom have experienced infancy. Her reproductive activity began with the fact that the family gave her married when she was only 12 years old. The first pregnancy was multiple - the twins were born. In total, Nabanani gave birth to twins four times, five times - triplets and five times in a quarter. Nabanzi had only one uniplressed pregnancy. Doctors Diagnosed She was supervision, however, because of her incompetence, they stated that she could not be protected, otherwise it could cost her life.

The case of Uganda indirectly confirms that with such a pathology, a woman will probably face multiple pregnancies constantly, violating the laws of statistics. All the birth, despite the number of fruits, passed naturally, and only the latest pregnancy ended with a Caesarean section. It was during him that the woman was tied with fallopian tubes. At that time, Ugandyk was 37 years old. It follows from this story that the probability of having 44 children is approximately equal to 1 to 4 billion (based on the fact that the ratio of men and women on the planet is approximately equal, but with the error that not all living women have already entered the reproductive age, and not all of those who have entered have the opportunity and desire to pregnant and give birth). The probability of having 67 children is most likely even less, but it is worth paying attention to the fact that Nabanani was tied up the pipes when she was still in reproductive age, and did not conduct a similar operation to the first wife of Vasiliev. Moreover, although the children of Uganda were born as a result of multiple pregnancies (with a significant probability ahead of schedule), their survival is generally higher than on average statistics. It can be assumed that the mechanism that triggers the supervision of a woman somehow affects the course of pregnancy and childbirth, increasing the percentage of survival in children.

Thus, it is impossible to unequivocally determine whether this story is true. There is no guarantee that the sheet sent to Moscow about the prolific peasant family fully corresponds to reality and does not contain exaggeration. From the point of view of biology and statistics, the story of the first wife of Vasiliev in theory is permissible, although unlikely. Multiple pregnancies themselves are quite a rare phenomenon, and a series of 27 such pregnancies in a row is even less likely (however, as Mariam Nabanzi shows, the supervision makes such a series all the same). Moreover, with the level of development of medicine and the parental system of the late XVIII century, it seems very problematic to successfully endure and give birth to so many children.

Image on the cover: Dall-E

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