Is the story about the peasant woman Vasilyeva, who gave birth to 69 children, true?

There is a popular story on the Internet about a peasant woman who allegedly gave birth to 69 children during the reign of Catherine II: 16 twins, seven triplets and four quadruplets. We decided to check if there is evidence of this incredible story.

About a prolific Russian peasant woman reported on websites TV channels, in women's magazines and on news sites aggregators. This story is also of interest to entertainment users. platforms And publics in social networks. Some authors express justified skepticism, others as confirmation refer on historical documents. Separate article is dedicated to this plot in the Russian-language Wikipedia.

Record about a certain peasant woman Vasilyeva, the wife of Fyodor Vasilyev, who gave birth to 69 children, is actually in the Guinness Book of Records. In total, Vasiliev had 87 children from his first and second wives. The text also notes: "Although this seems to be a statistically unlikely story, there are numerous contemporary sources that suggest it is true." In particular, it is mentioned that information about this was transmitted to Moscow on February 27, 1782 by the St. Nicholas Monastery. In addition, as evidence, material from Gentleman's Magazine of 1783 was cited, which mentioned a message from an English merchant, Alexander Bashutsky's book “Panorama of St. Petersburg” (1834) and the publication of the scientific journal The Lancet in 1878. The entry also indicates that the name of this woman is not known for certain (perhaps her name was Valentina), but she lived to be 76 years old. The Guinness Book of World Records also states that, while this record should be taken with a grain of salt, such fertility can be explained by a genetic predisposition to superovulation (the release of multiple eggs in one cycle), which significantly increases the likelihood of having twins or multiple children.

Gentleman's Magazine material and the truth exists, a scanned copy of it can be found using Google Books. It also provides information that of Vasiliev’s 87 children, only three did not live to see publication.

“Panorama of St. Petersburg” also mentioned by the Guinness Book of Records real edition. The 75th page tells about that same peasant Vasilyev.

What is noteworthy is that the Guinness Book of Records, although it quotes verbatim from it, makes a mistake in it - for example, in the original in Russian it is said that in 1782, out of 87 children, 83 were alive, and in the English edition - 82. Article The Lancet also exists and is cited correctly.

In 1788, information about the peasant Vasiliev appeared in the book “Notes on the history of ancient and modern Russia by G. Leclerc, composed by Major General Ivan Boltin.” There is one additional detail, namely, the monastery is indicated more precisely: “Nicholas Monastery, on the Kashirka River.” The wording from previous sources, “Nikolaevsky Monastery,” did not allow it to be accurately identified, but such a description leaves only one option: the Nikolo-Shartomsky Monastery. It is logical that the monks were not present at all the births of the peasant woman, but simply redirected information about her to Moscow. 

Consequently, it cannot be ruled out that although Vasilyeva was giving birth at that moment, she had a small pregnancy (or, for example, not quadruplets, but twins), and simply passed off the “additional” children as her own. Of course, no genetic examination was carried out to determine who those children were to each other and the Vasilyev couple.

If we assume that all the children were genetic descendants of the Vasilievs, then a number of questions arise from a biological point of view. The wording “twins”, “triplets” and “quadruplets” does not make it possible to judge what types of multiple pregnancies are being discussed. The fact is that the appearance of two or more children as a result of one pregnancy can be the result of two different processes. 

Normally, during each cycle, the ovaries produce one egg: for example, in January the right one “works”, and in February the “left” one. In reality, not everything is so strict and the alternation may not be so consistent. However, at some point it may happen that in one cycle both ovaries will be active and each will produce one egg. This is superovulation, mentioned in the Guinness Book of Records. Stimulation of superovulation is important stage modern IVF protocol, since it allows you to obtain several viable eggs at once. This result can be achieved using various combinations of synthetic hormones. Also superovulation Maybe occur after stopping combined oral contraceptives: the ovaries begin to work more actively, and the likelihood of multiple pregnancies increases. However, in the era before the spread of reproductive technologies, there could be no stimulation of superovulation.

With superovulation, there is a chance for a multiple pregnancy - each egg will be fertilized by one sperm, and a separate fetus will develop from each resulting zygote. In this case, we are talking about fraternal twins - they can be of different sexes and not even resemble each other. The birth rate of such children before the era of reproductive technologies was approximately one in 80 births. Accordingly, the likelihood of having three, four or more children decreases exponentially. Eat factorsfactors that increase this likelihood: maternal age (over 30 years), race (most often among African peoples, least often among Asian peoples) and multiple pregnancies in previous generations.

The second mechanism that makes it possible to have two or more children is the division of the zygote into two or more parts shortly after fertilization. In this case, we are talking about an identical pregnancy, and the children are as similar as possible to each other and are born with the same set of genes. The earlier the zygote separates, the more separated the twins will be from each other.

• If separation occurs on the first to third day, each twin has its own placenta and is surrounded by its own membranes (dichorionic diamniotic twins).
• If separation occurs on the fourth to eighth day, the placenta will become common, and a septum will appear in the amniotic membrane, that is, each fetus will be enclosed in its own amniotic sac (monochorionic diamniotic twins).
• If separation occurs from the eighth to the 13th day, then the twins will share both the placenta and the amniotic sac (monochorionic monoamniotic twins).
• If separation occurs after the 13th day, then complete separation will not occur and Siamese twins will develop.

Each type of twins has, firstly, its own frequency of occurrence, and secondly, its own survival rate. The fact is that both types of monochorionic twins are associated with such a life-threatening condition as feto-fetal transfusion syndrome. Due to a shared placenta, blood flow (and therefore nutrients) can be redistributed in favor of one fetus, depriving the other. Syndrome diagnose in 10–15% of cases of all multiple pregnancies with a common placenta, however, it is probably more common and entails the death of one fetus from the couple even before the diagnosis can be confirmed. In case of two fruits survival of one of the pair ranges from 15% to 70%, the survival rate of both is about 50% - even with modern treatment. 

However, without detailed information about the type of each of the multiple pregnancies, it is extremely difficult to assess the credibility and statistical probability of the Vasilievs’ story. The Guinness Book of Records version of Vasilyeva’s genetic propensity for superovulation assumes exclusively fraternal twins. However, this hypothesis does not explain the fact that Vasiliev’s second wife also had multiple pregnancies. It can be assumed that the peasant must have randomly chosen two women with a similar genetic characteristic as wives twice, or that both could have been pushed to superovulation by some common environmental factor that served as a substitute for modern hormonal therapy. 

In general, the second option cannot be completely ruled out, but it is very difficult to determine what could become a “natural” hormonal therapy. In theory, it could be some specific type of diet, brewing some herbs, or exposure to some chemical compound obtained from water or the environment. However, modern scientific developments are carried out in laboratories, and significant experiments have not been carried out on the influence of various natural components on the likelihood of superovulation.

Also, a very rare (but not impossible) explanation for Vasilyeva's extraordinary fertility could be her anatomical feature, which consists of the presence of two completely separate uteruses or a bicornuate uterus (splitting the normal uterine cavity into two merging parts in the lower part of the organ). On the one hand, with such a pathology, successful conception, gestation and birth of a child is more problematic, on the other hand, there is a chance for a multiple pregnancy, in which each fetus will develop in a separate uterus. This anatomical feature meets, according to various estimates, with a frequency of 1 in 1000 - 30,000, but the chance of carrying twins simultaneously in each of the uteruses is only 1 in 1 million. 

In general, such a number of pregnancies (and in total Vasiliev’s first wife has 27 of them, and the second has “only” eight) does not look incredible. There is no data available on how old women were at the time of marriage. In general, in the 18th century in the Russian Empire is happening gradual abandonment of very early marriages. In 1774, the church set the minimum age for marriage at 13 for girls and 15 for boys. Although Vasiliev entered into his first marriage before this decree, let us assume that his wives began to give birth no earlier than the middle age completion of puberty, that is, at about 16 years of age. Multiple pregnancies usually end not at the full 40 weeks, but earlier. So, average gestation time for twins is 36 weeks (more precisely, from 32 to 38 depending on its type), triplets - from 32 to 35, quadruplets - about 29 weeks. In total, Vasiliev’s first wife would have needed from 852 to 969 weeks, or from approximately 16 to 19 years, to carry out all the pregnancies. Of course, it should be taken into account that Vasilyeva’s pregnancies hardly followed one another. Average time recovery ovulation after childbirth - from 45 to 94 days.

But the recovery period may be longer - for example, with breastfeeding. The absence of ovulation during breastfeeding is called lactational amenorrhea; in general, this phenomenon is even considered a method of contraception. His efficiency very high - 98% within six months after birth, then lower. However, the method of lactational amenorrhea as protection against pregnancy works subject to strict compliance with a number of conditions:

• the child is exclusively breastfed, even without additional water;
• feedings occur strictly on demand, without breaks for more than four hours during the day and six hours at night;
• menstruation did not occur.

Even a single missed feeding can lead to ovulation and subsequent conception. Accordingly, between childbirth and the onset of the next pregnancy, Vasiliev’s first wife could have had intervals of one and a half to six months or more. It turns out that 26 such intervals must be added to the estimated time for gestation (16–19 years), or from 39 weeks (less than a year) to more than 156 (over three years). All this still fits within the framework of a woman’s potentially fertile period. However, it should be borne in mind that too frequent births and short breaks between them increase the risk of complications during the next pregnancy, although they do not make a successful pregnancy impossible. That is, purely mathematically, Vasiliev’s first wife could really get pregnant and give birth so many times. With the second wife, the picture is even more realistic: eight pregnancies (six twins and two triplets) would require a total of 256 to 298 weeks (about five to six years), plus seven breaks in between (from 10 and a half weeks to more than 42 weeks in total). 

However, all these theoretical calculations do not take into account another important factor - the level of obstetric care in those years and, accordingly, infant and maternal mortality. There were almost no statistics on these important criteria in the Russian Empire at the end of the 18th century. However, according to data, collected at the end of the 19th century by the doctor Nikolai Eck, who prioritized the issue of preventing infant mortality (children under five years of age), it was more than 15%. There is no reason to believe that the situation was better almost 100 years before Eck's analysis. It turns out that, from a statistical point of view, out of 87 children, only 73 should have overcome the five-year survival threshold. However, in general, the Vasilievs could take care of their children better than the national average, and therefore their offspring had a higher survival rate.

In addition, babies born before the 37th week have a lower chance of survival than full-term babies. Thus, with the most modern system of nursing premature infants mortality Among those born at 29–32 weeks it is 10%, and at 33–34 weeks it is 2%. It turns out that some of the triplets and quadruplets, with a certain degree of probability, should have died in the early neonatal period.

In addition to all of the above, studying the biography of the most large living woman, Mariam Nabatanzi from Uganda, can add details to assessing the credibility of Vasilyeva’s story. gave birth 44 children, 38 of whom survived infancy. Her reproductive career began when her family married her off when she was only 12 years old. The first pregnancy was multiple - twins were born. In total, Nabatanzi gave birth to twins four times, triplets five times and quadruplets five times. Nabatanzi had only one singleton pregnancy. Doctors diagnosed she was superovulating, but because of their incompetence they said that a woman should not take contraception, otherwise it could cost her life.

The case of the Ugandan woman indirectly confirms that with such a pathology, a woman is likely to experience multiple pregnancies constantly, violating the laws of statistics. All births, despite the number of fetuses, took place naturally, and only the most recent pregnancy ended in a cesarean section. It was during this that the woman had her fallopian tubes tied. At that time, the Ugandan was 37 years old. From this story it follows that the probability of having 44 children is approximately 1 in 4 billion (based on the fact that the ratio of men and women on the planet is approximately equal, but with the error that not all living women have already reached reproductive age, and also not all of those included have the opportunity and desire to become pregnant and give birth). The probability of having 67 children is most likely even less, but it is worth paying attention to the fact that Nabatanzi had her tubes tied when she was still of reproductive age, and Vasiliev’s first wife did not undergo a similar operation. Moreover, although Ugandan children were born as a result of multiple pregnancies (with a significant probability of premature birth), their survival rate was generally higher than the statistical average. It can be assumed that the mechanism that triggers superovulation in a woman somehow affects the course of pregnancy and childbirth, increasing the survival rate in children.

Thus, it is unfortunately impossible to definitively determine whether this story is true. There is no guarantee that the report sent to Moscow about a prolific peasant family is completely true and does not contain exaggerations. From the point of view of biology and statistics, the story of Vasiliev’s first wife is theoretically acceptable, although unlikely. Multiple pregnancies themselves are quite rare, and a sequence of 27 such pregnancies in a row is even less likely (however, as the case of Mariam Nabatanzi shows, superovulation makes such a sequence still possible). Moreover, given the level of development of medicine and the obstetric system of the late 18th century, successfully bearing and giving birth to such a number of children seems very problematic.

Cover image: DALL-E

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