Is it true that there are more Ukrainians living in Russia and the territories it occupied than in Ukraine itself?

In December 2024, during a direct line, Vladimir Putin suggested that, taking into account the so-called new territories, no fewer, if not more, Ukrainians now live in Russia than in Ukraine. We decided to find out if this is so.

Full statement from the Russian President it sounded like this: “Ukrainians already live in Russia, if not as many as in Ukraine, and maybe even more. I'm not kidding, this could very well be the case. I mean those people who live in new territories, in Crimea, and those who moved to us - these are millions of people. In general, we have about the same number of Ukrainians living in Ukraine now.” That is, in his calculations, Putin took into account, in addition to the Russian regions, the annexed Crimea and the occupied territories of the Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions - the Kremlin calls them "new territories».

In 2013, the population of Ukraine, according to the State Statistics Service, amounted to 45.5 million people. This year was the last year to count residents of Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014. As of January 1, 2022, the population of Ukraine amounted to 41.2 million people - excluding Crimea and the occupied territories of Donetsk and Lugansk regions. Following the Russian full-scale invasion in February 2022, the Ukrainian population continued to decline, primarily due to territories captured by Russia.

In the demographic development strategy of Ukraine, adopted by the government of the country in September 2024, indicated, that as of July 2024, 35.8 million people live in Ukraine, and if we take into account only the territory in which government bodies exercise their powers in full, 31.1 million people.

BBC Russian Service, which sorted it out Putin’s statements during the direct line, notes that there are not just fewer Ukrainians in Russia than in Ukraine, but many times fewer.

By according to the UN as of November 2024, the total number of Ukrainian refugees in the world, including Russia, is about 6.8 million people. The organization estimates that since 2014, the population of Ukraine has decreased by 10 million people, of which by 8 million since 2022. This is approximately a quarter of the entire population, and not all of them ended up on Russian territory.

According to All-Russian Population Censusconducted in 2020–2021, 884,000 people called themselves Ukrainians, including descendants of Ukrainians who arrived long before the war between Russia and Ukraine. After the Russian invasion, the situation was supposed to change. However, the exact number of Ukrainians who arrived in Russia after February 2022 is unknown, the BBC notes. The UN says about 2 million people, Russian state media citing sources in security forces reported about 5 million refugees.

In conditions of hostilities, it is difficult to calculate the number of inhabitants in the new territories, as the Russian authorities call the occupied Ukrainian regions. The surest way to get an idea of ​​the population of these territories is to count the number of Russian passports issued. Ukrainian authorities have repeatedly statedthat forced passportization is being carried out in the occupied territories. According to the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs, since 2022 there will be was issued more than 3.4 million passports. Universal passportization occurred earlier in Crimea, where the Russian authorities issued documents to almost all residents of the peninsula (from 2 million to 2.5 million people).

If you add up all these numbers, some of which are inflated (5 million refugees, 2.5 million residents of Crimea, 3.4 million residents of the “new territories”), the total will be no more than 11 million people. And in Ukraine, despite the war and the loss of control over part of the country’s territory, 31 million people live, that is, almost three times as many.

However, it can be assumed that not all citizens of Ukraine are Ukrainians. The latest data on the ethnicity of Ukrainian residents dates back to 2001, when a survey was conducted. population census. Then 77.8% of the country’s inhabitants called themselves Ukrainians, that is, 37.5 million people.

In several regions that Russia subsequently annexed in whole or in part, there was comparatively low percentage Ukrainians: in Crimea - 24.3%, Sevastopol - 22.4%, Donetsk region - 56.9%, Lugansk region - 58%. In the Zaporozhye region this share was 70.8%, in the Kherson region - 82%.

Accurate calculations in this case are impossible due to the lack of reliable data. But it can be assumed that the share of citizens who consider themselves ethnic Ukrainians increased after Crimea, Sevastopol, Donetsk and Lugansk regions were excluded from the statistics. If we take the most conservative estimate: 80% of the 31 million people currently living in the territory of the country controlled by Kyiv are Ukrainians, then we get 24.8 million. And even this figure is more than twice the most daring and inflated estimates of the number of Ukrainians in Russia.

Thus, Putin’s words that there are no fewer, if not more, Ukrainians in Russia than in Ukraine do not correspond to reality.

Cover photo: Wikimedia Commons

Not true

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