At the beginning of December 2024, news spread in Russian-language Telegram channels that Western Ukraine would join NATO, and the eastern regions would go to Russia. We have verified the accuracy of such publications.
On December 3, Telegram channels, citing Politico, reported that the allies proposed a new version of the peace plan for Ukraine. According to them, the western part of the country will join NATO, while the eastern part will remain under Russian control. Bloggers compared this outcome with the fate of Germany after World War II, when the Federal Republic of Germany joined the North Atlantic Alliance and the German Democratic Republic joined the Warsaw Pact. Some posts were accompanied by an illustration depicting the planned division of Ukraine. Similar publications appeared in Telegram channels “Ax Live"(827,000 views at the time of writing this analysis), "Newsach / Dvach"(190,000), "Uncle Slava" (173,000), "Ivan Utenkov | Kukrsk"(132,000), "Belarusian security officer"(128,000), etc.
Since 2022, when the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine began, the parties to the conflict themselves and world leaders have from time to time put forward various peace initiatives. These plans cover a wide range of approaches, from mediation And security guarantees to neutrality proposals And demilitarization. However, none of the proposed scenarios has yet been used as a basis for a settlement. “Formula of Peace” and the “victory plan” of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky that replaced it, based on restoring the territorial integrity of the country within its internationally recognized borders, and the goals of Moscow voiced by Russian President Vladimir Putin, suggesting establishing control, including over unoccupied territories, remain incompatible.
Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election in November 2024 has intensified discussions about the need for a speedy resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation. During his election campaign, the politician emphasized priority of America's internal problems and spoke out for reducing Washington's involvement in international conflicts. Shortly after winning the election, Trump spoke on the phone with Putin (The Kremlin is denies) And with Zelensky, and recently held negotiations with the Ukrainian leader in Paris through the mediation of French President Emmanuel Macron.
Telegram channels that spread the news about the upcoming division of Ukraine following the example of the Federal Republic of Germany and the German Democratic Republic refer to an article by Politico. On December 2, 2024, it actually appeared on his website material under the heading “An abundance of peace plans for Ukraine: many ideas to end the fighting, but the sides are still far from each other.” In the text, the authors analyze the stated goals of Ukraine and the “victory plan” proposed by Zelensky, as well as its (in)compatibility with the publicly stated goals of Russia, among which the article names the capitulation of Kyiv. The following are various scenarios for ending the conflict and security guarantees for Ukraine.
Journalists call the Israeli model the first such scenario. She assumes that Ukraine is not a member of NATO, but remains a close ally of the United States and a number of European countries that continue to provide military and diplomatic support to Kyiv. The article notes that Israel was able to develop a powerful weapons industry under such conditions. The publication considers the advantage of this plan to be minimizing the risks of drawing NATO into a direct conflict with Russia.
The authors call the other proposed model German - it was this model that Telegram channels presented as a plan to divide Ukraine into spheres of influence. Describing this scenario, Politico journalists suggest that the entire territory controlled by Kiev could be “connected to the West” and “potentially join NATO,” while the occupied areas in the east of the country would remain under Moscow’s control “for now.” Edition quotes words Zelensky from his recent interview with Sky News: “If we want to stop the hot phase of the war, we need to take the territory of Ukraine that we control under the NATO umbrella.” However, just two days later the Ukrainian leader statedthat Kyiv will not agree to invite only part of the country to the alliance, since this means automatic recognition of the occupied territories.
Bloggers were probably misled by the phrase Western Ukraine used in the text - they decided that we were talking only about the western regions of Ukraine, but from the context it follows that they mean the territories to the west of the front line. However, in any case, the authors of the viral publications kept silent about the other models discussed in the Politico text.
The last scenario proposed in the article is the Finnish model, which provides for the neutral status of Ukraine and the abandonment of occupied territories following the example of Finland after the Soviet-Finnish and World War II. At the same time, Politico notes that this approach will not protect against a new Russian attack, because Ukraine already had a neutral status until 2022, but this did not prevent a full-scale invasion.
Journalists emphasize that their publication is not so much about specific plans for peace, but about possible options for building relations between Ukraine and Russia, which could help end the war. Moreover, using the experience of divided Germany in the context of a possible post-war structure of Ukraine is not Politico’s idea; the authors of the article themselves do not claim primacy in this regard. A similar idea was expressed many times before - for example, former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg did this is in an October interview with the Financial Times, and in 2023 articles on this topic were published The New York Times, Foreign Policy and other publications.
The image of the map of Ukraine, circulated by Telegram channels as an illustration of exactly how Ukraine will be divided, was not published at all in the Politico article.
NATO membership provided by unanimous decision of all states included in the alliance, and only to countries that meet certain criteria. These include adherence to democratic principles, the desire to resolve conflicts peacefully and public control over the armed forces. In addition, applicants for NATO membership must contribute to collective defense and demonstrate commitment to the values of the alliance. It is widely believed that states with territorial disputes cannot join the bloc. However, as previously wrote “Verified”, there is no direct legal prohibition on this in NATO documents; in reality, everything depends on the risk of using force to resolve such a conflict. This is also why its members are still talking about Ukraine’s entry into the alliance. can't agree.
Thus, publications with reference to Politico, dedicated to the possible division of Ukraine and the entry of its western regions into NATO, are taken out of context. The original article of the publication examines different models for resolving the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. One of the scenarios described by journalists involves the provision of security guarantees for the entire territory of the country, with the exception of the occupied areas, and in the future the possibility of their joining the North Atlantic Alliance.
Cover photo: social networks
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