In August 2024, a message about several successful operations of the Russian army during the invasion of Ukraine, which in the near future should lead to the victory of the Russian Federation in the war, spread in social networks and messengers. We checked the reliability of this newsletter.
In a fairly voluminous viral message that diverges through WhatsApp, Viber, Telegram, "VKontakte" Facebook and other social networks, the following is said (hereinafter the author's spelling and punctuation are preserved):
“To everyone, the attention of everyone
Today, the Russian Air Force inflicted a powerful and blinding blow to Kyiv. The radar station was destroyed, which was responsible for the safety of the north-eastern part of Ukraine. The Center for the placement of the GUR special forces (Vsevgrad, Kyiv region) is spaced into the chips. Purpose of the attack: eliminating the possibility of sabotage operations by Ukro-terrorists in the territory of Ross. Regions. In the Khmelnitsky region. Roy BPP Kamikadze flew to the Starokanstanov airfield, now no one can be based there at all. In Vinnitsa region. It flew at the Vinnitsa International Airport, where there was a secret base: to train and prepare a flight personnel, and there was also a repair of airplanes, the airport’s territory is still not extinguished. In the Sumy region. The phases were covered-the location of the presses in the Akhtyrsky district, the explosions in Konotop sounded. One source from the environment of the President of the Russian Federation reported that Vladimir Putin is considering the variant of the hard ultimatum to Ukraine. The people require victory and the president is ready for harsh decisions. To finish his own and save as many lives of our soldiers as possible, as well as not to conduct a new mobilization, Vladimir Putin considers the option of strict ultimatum to Ukraine. Putin will demand the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the territory of Russia (new regions) and the voluntary surrender of Kharkov, Nikolaev and Odessa .. In the event of refusal, Moscow will declare a real war to Kyiv within 24 hours. After that, within 72 hours, Kyiv, Lviv, Dnipro, Poltava, Ternopol and Vinnitsa will be destroyed. The rest of the territory of Ukraine will be subjected to massive missile and bombing. Tu-22M3 bombers Fab-5000 will destroy all bridges through the Dnieper, civilian airports, and all railway infrastructure. The center of Kyiv, all administrative buildings and bunkers will be destroyed by the "daggers". All substations of power plants will be destroyed by a single missile and bomb from the Tu-95MS bombers.
The special forces of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in Kyiv will detain all the highest leadership of Ukraine, and if it is impossible to eliminate on the spot. And this is only the beginning! After 48 hours, climax will begin.
From tomorrow, no pictures, postcards and videos. There is a virus. Hackers declared war and in pictures with the video there will be viruses. After that, the phone or computer cannot be restored. You can correspond, but no pictures. Very important. We crossed their friends and relatives so that they did not spoil their and your phones. News from the report of the Ministry of Internal Affairs.
In connection with the circumstances in our country, starting from tomorrow, new communication rules appear. All calls will be recorded. All recordings of phone calls are recorded. All messages and calls from WhatsApp are recorded. Monitoring Twitter. Facebook monitoring. Monitoring. All social networks and forums. Tell those who do not know. All devices are connected to departmental CDMX systems. Be careful not to send unnecessary messages or information that contradicts the laws and morality. Avoid talking confidential information to your friends and relatives. Tell your children and be very careful! It is very important to transmit this message only today. Because from tomorrow in the country there is already another form of observation. Incredibly, but true. Just send it today to all your loved ones and friends. "Everything that you write or speak can be used against you, even any joke!"
You make a solution yourself. "
Studying search queries through the Yandex.Vordstat service shows that the mailing list began to spread against the background invasion Armed Forces in the Kursk region. The Ukrainian military crossed the border on August 6, within two days it became clear that the situation was serious, and the Russian army, despite assurances Ministry of Defense, cannot stop the advance of the enemy. Anonymous letters by Yandex users begin to be interested in August 9-10. It promised a complete and very fast retribution: in the very near future, a massive bombardment of military facilities in Ukraine is expected, even “after 48 hours there will be a climax”. Thus, the newsletter (more precisely, its first part) is a prediction of the soon and victorious for the Russian Federation to end the war after the APU in the international recognized Russian territory.
As you know, neither after 48 hours, nor after two weeks nothing of the kind did not happen. However, this false prediction did not arise on August 9 as a reaction to hostilities in the Kursk region, but a few months earlier. The previous surge in the popularity of the first part of the newsletter is indicated by TGSTAT data, Came In May 2024, more noticeable - to the last decade of March. Both times an anonymous author also promised the victory in the war against Ukraine in the next 48 hours. For example, on March 22 this text Published Tatyana Marugova, who calls himself a poetess and a member of the Union of Writers of Russia. She adheres to ultrapatriotic views, and in her Telegram channel she writes a lot about the invasion of Ukraine and Orthodoxy.
Four options for the apocalypse: the composite nature of the text
If you carefully look at the text of the newsletter, it will become noticeable that it consists of four parts, in the content of very poorly related to each other. This is an example of compilation - an artificial association different in origin of texts in one. In the mailing list, we are talking about successful attacks on the territory of Ukraine, then about the ultimatum, which Vladimir Putin is ready to announce to Kyiv, then about the attack of the hackers, which Russians can be subjected to, and the authorities of strict control over citizens through their gadgets may be said. These stories are united only by the expectation of approaching significant changes.
The genre ancestor of all four parts of the newsletter is the so -called Circular letter (it is also holy or magical), which in modern form appeared in Europe and North America in the 19th century. As a rule, it contains a certain apocalyptic prediction or, conversely, a story about a saving miracle. In more archaic versions, this miracle was religious (the phenomenon of the Virgin or the cure of the child), in modern we are more often about, for example, about winning a lottery. The obligatory element of a magical letter is an invitation to the reader to join the miracle. To do this, he must perform a magical action - copy and distribute a letter (therefore, in English it is called Chain Letter, from Chain - “chain”).
The newsletter about the imminent victory over Ukraine inherited from the text-predictive character: the authors first predict a military apocalypse for Kyiv, and then the digital, apparently, for Russians. To minimize the consequences, the third and fourth fragments say, the letter must be distributed as widely as possible.
The first plot: defeat of Ukraine
The first substantive fragment of the newsletter - a story about the military successes of the Russian Federation in Ukraine - is a set of phrases borrowed with minor changes from Articles Elena Gamayun in Moscow Komsomolets of March 15, 2024. A comparative table with individual phrases from both texts is presented below. There are no substantial differences between them, but the authors of anonymous newsletter instead of mostly formally neutral statements by Gamayun try to use emotionally painted, and sometimes directly insulting formulations.
Total plot: Putin's ultimatum
The second part of the newsletter (about the upcoming ultimatum to Ukraine) was taken from even earlier publications. As evidenced by TGSTAT, the viral text is based on fast Telegram channel "Nezigar" (now NZG), located on July 9, 2022. Record was dedicated held two days earlier than Putin's meeting with the leadership of the State Duma of the Russian Federation. “The president’s statements at a meeting with the leaders of the parliamentary factions regarding Ukraine meant a change in the current peaceful concept of his miraculous aggressive. However, in the event of the recognition of the Russian Federation, the country - the sponsor of terrorism at the request of Ukraine, Moscow will declare war on Kyiv within 24 [hours], ”writes Nezigar without indicating the source. Further, the author of the publication talks about the destruction within three days of the largest cities of Ukraine, the main bridges through the Dnieper, airports and stations, the work of DRG in Kyiv and a more active involvement of Belarus in the war. Post Shared many Large Prochremlin Telegram channels.
Some of them Published A slightly edited version of the same text from September 23 to 28, 2022. In the updated version, “the change of current peaceful concept to moderately aggressive”, according to Telegram channels, did not mean Putin’s statement at a meeting with the leaders of the State Duma, but his Appeal From September 21 of the same year, in which the President of the Russian Federation announced the beginning of partial mobilization and conduct of “referendums” in the occupied territories of Ukraine. It was after the completion of the “voting”, the bloggers claimed, Putin supposedly will announce the ultimatum to Kyiv. It is noteworthy that the overwhelming majority Similar posts Contained Advertising Links to large proxual telegram channels and were removed A day after the publication.
Bloggers have applied the same method for a set of views and subscribers (as well as making money on advertising) three more times. At the end of December 2022 they announced a sign approaching ultimatum to Ukraine performance Putin at the board of the Ministry of Defense. In August 2023, Telegram channels (this time with reference to an unnamed source surrounded by the President of the Russian Federation) Reportedthat such a decision will be made after the failure of the Ukrainian counterattack, and in March 2024 - that After the presidential election In Russia.
A comparison of different versions shows that in the text each time they removed the details that became irrelevant at the time of publication. As a result of the editing, some phrases have become illiterate - for example, "Putin will demand the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops."
Plot third: fear of hackers
Fear of loss of control over their digital devices is one of the most common in modern society. Back in 2020, messages about the danger of stickers and pictures with the inscription "Good morning" Distributed WhatsApp not only in Russia, but also in Kazakhstan.
In 2022, against the backdrop of a war in Ukraine, a new version of the warning about the attack of hackers appears, which allegedly send a powerful virus through the pictures in WhatsApp. A few days after the start of a full -scale Russian invasion of social networks Appears A rather detailed warning, but over time text It is reduced.
Since August 2022, Yandex users regularly tried to check whether the warning corresponds to reality. According to Yandex.Vordstat, during this time the initial phrase of mailings about hackers was introduced into the search line more than 46,000 times.
Fourth plot: Digital Gulag
In 2017 in Russian and Kazakhstani social networks Appears A panic warning about the strengthening of control measures, presumably, power structures: calls through messengers will be recorded, and communication through social networks will monitor. Since then, Russian -speaking users regularly spread this newsletter, and its recipients have been trying to check the reliability of this information. At least 48,000 people tried to do this through the Yandex search line (while we took into account only requests on the first line of newsletter).
Two plots - about hackers and about digital gulag - Combined One no later than summer 2023. The peak of the popularity of this combined version Came In March 2024.
***
Thus, the viral newsletter, which has become popular in August 2024, consists of four fragments that appeared in different sources over the past few years - both before and after the start of a full -scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. At the same time, two plots (taken from the article of the Moscow Komsomolsa and the posture of the Nezigar) talk about the imminent victory of the Russian Federation in the war with Ukraine, and two more about cyberosis and strengthening digital control over the Russians.
Russian supporters of war, dissatisfied with the offensive of the Armed Forces in the Kursk region, need emotional compensation and are therefore interested in promoting this text. However, those who, judging by the profiles in social networks, adhere to very moderate views are also involved in its distribution. Regardless of their attitude to the war, these people do not notice (or prefer not to notice) the heterogeneity of the mailing list and the lack of substantive “seams”, which could unite four fragment different in their sends.
In a situation of social disaster, a person’s desire to maintain contacts with loved ones is intensified. To share in family or house chat recommendations similar to the viral newsletter contained in a viral newsletter is an affordable and non -consumable way of manifesting care. No wonder how Show Studies, it is people who are prone to altruism (ready to sit with the cat, bring the broth of a sick neighbor, etc.), will more likely send frightening (including fake) news in instant messengers. Moreover, the reflection in the viral text of four different fears at once increases the likelihood that at least one of them will be in demand by readers, and the newsletter will be directed further along the chain in a constant form.
Photo on the cover: kremlin.ru
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