In August 2024, a message spread on social networks and instant messengers about several successful operations of the Russian army during the invasion of Ukraine, which in the near future should lead to the victory of the Russian Federation in the war. We have verified the accuracy of this newsletter.
In a rather voluminous viral message that is being circulated on WhatsApp, Viber, Telegram, "VKontakte", Facebook and other social networks, the following is said (hereinafter the author’s spelling and punctuation are preserved):
"EVERYONE, ATTENTION EVERYONE
Today, the Russian Aerospace Forces delivered a powerful and blinding blow to Kyiv. The radar station, which was responsible for the security of the northeastern part of Ukraine, was destroyed. The GUR Special Forces Accommodation Center (Vyshegrad, Kiev region) was smashed to pieces. Purpose of the attack: eliminating the possibility of sabotage operations by Ukrainian-terrorists on the territory of Russian regions. In Khmelnitsky region. a swarm of kamikaze UAVs flew to the Starokonstantinov airfield, now no one will be able to base there at all. In Vinnytsia region. flew to the Vinnitsa international airport, where there was a secret base for the training and preparation of flight personnel and aircraft repairs were also carried out there; the airport area has not yet been extinguished. In Sumy region. FABs were covered - the location of VSU checks in the Akhtyrsky district, explosions were heard in Konotop. One source from the circle of the President of the Russian Federation reported information that Vladimir Putin is considering the option of a harsh ultimatum to Ukraine. The people demand victory and the President is ready for tough decisions. In order to finish the North Military District and save as many lives of our soldiers as possible, and also to avoid a new mobilization, Vladimir Putin is considering the option of a harsh ultimatum to Ukraine. Putin will demand the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Russian territory (new regions) and the voluntary surrender of Kharkov, Nikolaev and Odessa. In case of refusal, Moscow will declare real war on Kyiv within 24 hours. After which, within 72 hours, Kyiv, Lviv, Dnieper, Poltava, Ternopil and Vinnitsa will be destroyed. The rest of Ukraine will be subject to massive missile and bomb attacks. Tu-22M3 bombers using FAB-5000 bombs will destroy all bridges across the Dnieper, civilian airports, and all railway infrastructure. The center of Kyiv, all administrative buildings and bunkers will be destroyed by "Daggers". All power station substations will be destroyed by a single missile and bomb attack from Tu-95ms bombers.
The special forces of the Russian Armed Forces in Kyiv will detain the entire top leadership of Ukraine, and if impossible, liquidate them on the spot. And this is just the beginning! In 48 hours the climax will begin.
From tomorrow, no pictures, postcards or videos. There's a virus there. Hackers have declared war and there will be viruses in pictures and videos. After which the phone or computer cannot be restored. You can correspond, but no pictures. Very important. Pass this on to your friends and family so they don’t ruin their phones and yours. News from the Ministry of Internal Affairs report.
Due to the circumstances in our country, new communication rules will appear starting tomorrow. All calls will be recorded. All phone calls are recorded. All messages and calls from Whatsapp are recorded. Twitter monitoring. Facebook monitoring. Monitoring. All social networks and forums. Tell those who don't know. All devices are connected to departmental CDMX systems. Be careful not to send unnecessary messages or information that is against laws and morals. Avoid telling confidential information to your friends and family. Tell your kids and be very careful! It is very important to convey this message just today. Because starting tomorrow there is already another form of surveillance in the country. Unbelievable, but true. Just send it to all your family and friends today. "Everything you write or say can be used against you, even any joke!"
YOU MAKE THE DECISION YOURSELF.”
A study of search queries through the Yandex.Wordstat service shows that the newsletter began to spread against the background invasion Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region. The Ukrainian military crossed the border on August 6, within two days it became clear that the situation was serious, and the Russian army, despite assurances Ministry of Defense cannot stop the enemy's advance. Yandex users begin to become interested in anonymous letters as early as August 9–10. It promises complete and very speedy retribution: a massive bombing of military installations in Ukraine is expected in the very near future, and “in 48 hours there will be a climax.” Thus, the newsletter (more precisely, its first part) is a prediction of a quick and victorious end of the war for the Russian Federation after the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on internationally recognized Russian territory.
As you know, neither after 48 hours, nor after two weeks, nothing like this didn't happen. However, this false prediction did not arise on August 9 as a reaction to military operations in the Kursk region, but several months earlier. The previous surge in popularity of the first part of the newsletter, according to TGStat data, had to for May 2024, more noticeable - for the last ten days of March. Both times, the anonymous author also promised victory in the war against Ukraine within the next 48 hours. For example, on March 22 this text published Tatyana Marugova, who calls herself a poetess and a member of the Russian Writers' Union. She holds ultra-patriotic views, and in her Telegram channel she writes a lot about the invasion of Ukraine and Orthodoxy.
Four variants of the apocalypse: the composite nature of the text
If you look closely at the text of the newsletter, you will notice that it consists of four parts, the contents of which are very poorly related to each other. This is an example of compilation - the artificial combination of texts of different origins into one. The newsletter first talks about successful attacks on the territory of Ukraine, then about the ultimatum that Vladimir Putin is ready to announce to Kyiv, then about the hacker attack that Russians may be subjected to, and finally it talks about the introduction by the authorities of strict control over citizens through their gadgets. These stories are united only by the expectation of approaching significant changes.
The genre ancestor of all four parts of the newsletter is the so-called circular letter (aka holy or magical), which in its modern form appeared in Europe and North America in the 19th century. As a rule, it contains some kind of apocalyptic prediction or, conversely, a story about a saving miracle. In more archaic versions, this miracle was religious (the appearance of the Virgin Mary or the healing of a child); in modern versions, it is more often about, for example, winning the lottery. An obligatory element of magical writing is an invitation to the reader to join the miracle. To do this, he must perform a magical act - copy and distribute the letter (that is why in English it is called a chain letter, from chain - “chain”).
The newsletter about an imminent victory over Ukraine inherited a predictive character from its ancestor text: the authors first predict a military apocalypse for Kyiv, and then a digital apocalypse, apparently, for the Russians. To minimize the consequences, the third and fourth fragments say, the letter must be distributed as widely as possible.
Plot one: the defeat of Ukraine
The first meaningful fragment of the newsletter - a story about the military successes of the Russian Federation on the territory of Ukraine - is a set of phrases borrowed with minor changes from articles Elena Gamayun in Moskovsky Komsomolets dated March 15, 2024. A comparison table with selected phrases from both texts is presented below. There are no substantive differences between them, however, the authors of the anonymous newsletter, instead of Gamayun’s mostly formally neutral statements, try to use emotionally charged and sometimes downright offensive language.
Plot two: Putin's ultimatum
The second part of the newsletter (about the upcoming ultimatum to Ukraine) is taken from even earlier publications. According to TGStat data, the viral text was based on fast Telegram channel “Nezygar” (now NZG), posted on July 9, 2022. Record was dedicated Putin’s meeting with the leadership of the State Duma of the Russian Federation, which took place two days earlier. “The president’s statements at a meeting with the leaders of parliamentary factions regarding Ukraine meant a change in the current peaceful concept of the Northern Military District to a moderate-aggressive one. However, if the Russian Federation is recognized as a country sponsoring terrorism at the request of Ukraine, Moscow will declare war on Kyiv within 24 [hours], “Nezygar writes without specifying the source. Further, the author of the publication talks about the destruction within three days of the largest cities in Ukraine, the main bridges across the Dnieper, airports and train stations, the work of the DRG in Kyiv and the more active involvement of Belarus in the war. Posting shared many large pro-Kremlin Telegram channels.
Some of them published a slightly edited version of the same text between 23 and 28 September 2022. In the updated version, “the change from the current peaceful concept of the Northern Military District to a moderate-aggressive one,” according to Telegram channels, meant not Putin’s statement at the meeting with the leaders of the State Duma, but his appeal dated September 21 of the same year, in which the President of the Russian Federation announced the beginning of partial mobilization and the holding of “referendums” in the occupied territories of Ukraine. It was after the completion of the “voting,” bloggers argued, that Putin would allegedly announce an ultimatum to Kyiv. It is noteworthy that the overwhelming majority similar posts contained advertising links to major pro-Kremlin Telegram channels and have been deleted one day after publication.
The bloggers used the same method of gaining views and subscribers (as well as making money from advertising) three more times. At the end of December 2022 they announced sign approaching ultimatum to Ukraine performance Putin at the board of the Ministry of Defense. In August 2023, Telegram channels (this time with reference to an unnamed source close to the President of the Russian Federation) reported, that such a decision will be made after the failure of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, and in March 2024 - that after the presidential elections in Russia.
A comparison of different versions shows that each time the text removed details that became irrelevant at the time of publication. As a result of editing, some phrases became illiterate - for example, “Putin will demand the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops.”
Plot three: fear of hackers
The fear of losing control of your digital devices is one of the most common in modern society. Back in 2020, messages about the dangers of stickers and pictures with the words “Good morning” spread on WhatsApp not only in Russia, but also in Kazakhstan.
In 2022, against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, a new version of the warning appears about an attack by hackers who allegedly send a powerful virus through pictures on WhatsApp. Just a few days after the start of the full-scale Russian invasion on social networks appears quite a detailed warning, but over time the text is declining.
Since August 2022, Yandex users have regularly tried to check whether the warning is true. According to Yandex.Wordstat, during this time the initial phrase of the newsletter about hackers was entered into the search bar more than 46,000 times.
Plot four: digital GULAG
In 2017, in Russian and Kazakh social networks appears panic warning about strengthening control measures, presumably by security forces: calls through instant messengers will be recorded, and communication through social networks will be monitored. Since then, Russian-speaking users regularly distribute this newsletter, and its recipients try to verify the accuracy of this information. At least 48,000 people tried to do this through the Yandex search line (we only counted requests from the first line of the mailing list).
Two stories - about hackers and about the digital Gulag - united one no later than the summer of 2023. The peak of popularity of this combined version had to for March 2024.
***
Thus, the viral message, which became popular in August 2024, consists of four fragments that appeared in different sources over the past several years - both before and after the start of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. At the same time, two stories (taken from an article by Moskovsky Komsomolets and a post by Nezygar) talk about the imminent victory of the Russian Federation in the war with Ukraine, and two more talk about cyber threats and strengthening digital control over Russians.
Russian supporters of the war, dissatisfied with the offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region, need emotional compensation and are therefore interested in promoting this text. However, those who, judging by their social media profiles, also hold very moderate views, are also participating in its spread. Regardless of their attitude towards the war, these people do not notice (or prefer not to notice) the heterogeneity of the mailing and the lack of meaningful “seams” that could unite four fragments that are different in their messages.
In a situation of social catastrophe, a person’s desire to maintain contacts with loved ones increases. Sharing recommendations similar to those contained in a viral newsletter in a family or household chat is an accessible and inexpensive way to show care. No wonder how show research, it is people who are prone to altruism (ready to sit with a cat, bring broth to a sick neighbor, etc.) who are more likely to send frightening (including fake) news in instant messengers. Moreover, the reflection of four different fears at once in a viral text increases the likelihood that at least one of them will be in demand by readers, and the mailing will be sent further along the chain unchanged.
Cover photo: kremlin.ru
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