Is it true that Lenin did not expect a revolution in Russia at the beginning of 1917?

Talking about the swiftness of the changes in Russia and at the same time the unpreparedness of politicians to them, they often recall that the leader of the Bolsheviks shortly before the overthrow of Nicholas II was sure that the revolution was still far away. We checked the reliability of such statements.

The allegations that Lenin at the beginning of 1917 did not expect the fall of the Russian Empire, can be found not only in Blogs And newspaper articles, but, it would seem, in completely solid books. For example, British writer Robert Payne in the biography of Lenin (it was translated into Russian and published in the series "Life of wonderful people") He wrote: “By the end of February 1917, Lenin was completely desperate. The Russian revolution, conceivable to them as the initial stage of the world revolution, again seemed to him a distant, unrealistic dream. ”

As evidence of this point of view, a quote from report Lenin about the 1905 revolution, with which he made on January 22 (according to the Julian calendar - January 9), 1917 in Switzerland: "We, the old people may not live to the decisive battles of this impending revolution." Sometimes she is not recalled literally, further enhancing the skepticism of the leader of the Bolsheviks. For example, how asserted In one of his broadcasts on the Echo of Moscow radio station, the poet and publicist Dmitry Bykov: “Lenin did not take any participation at all in the February Revolution. He said a week before her: "It is hardly our grandchildren to see a revolution."

Although the quote “We, old people, perhaps, will not live up to the decisive battles of this coming revolution” really belongs to Lenin, acquaintance with the full text of the report and the circumstances of its preparation make you look at the words of the politician differently. First of all, we note that the report was made in German in front of the Swiss working youth in the People’s House in Zurich. From the full text of the report it follows that, under the “decisive battles of this future revolution,” Lenin understood the victory of communism in Europe and throughout the world, and not only in Russia. Immediately before the quoted words he He said:

The current grave silence in Europe should not deceive us. Europe is fraught with revolution ... Likely, in Russia in 1905, under the leadership of the proletariat, a popular uprising against the tsarist government began in order to conquer the democratic republic, so the coming years just in connection with this predatory [First World War, they will lead to popular uprisings under the leadership of the proletariat against the power of financial capital, against capitalists, and these shocks cannot end in different ways, and these shocks cannot end in different ways, it can not end in different ways. As soon as the expropriation of the bourgeoisie, the victory of socialism.

The context also allows you to understand why the 46-year-old Lenin called himself an old man-he really was much older than the listeners and, obviously, used this definition as a rhetorical technique.

Other texts of Lenin and his correspondence for 1915 - the beginning of 1917 indicate that he tried to carefully monitor the state of affairs in Russia, despite the difficulties associated with the spread of news through Europe covered by the war. In the article “Twelve Brief theses about G. Greilich’s protection, the Fatherland Protection, printed by Lenin (under the pseudonym) in the Swiss newspaper Volksrecht on January 31 and February 1, 1917, he pointed out the growth of revolutionary sentiments in Russia and Germany, discussed rumors about the conclusion of the separatic world between these countries and He wrote:

The king could say to Wilhelm: “If I openly sign a separate world, then tomorrow, about my August counterparty, you will probably have to deal with the government of Milyukov and Guchkov, if not Milyukov and Kerensky. For the revolution is growing, and I do not vouch for the army, with the generals of which Guchkov corresponds, and whose officers are now more than yesterday's gymnasium students. Are we calculating that I can lose the throne, and you can lose a good counterparty? "

It is noteworthy that a month later all three politicians mentioned: the leader of the cadets Pavel Milyukov, the head of the Union of October 17, Alexander Guchkov and Socialist Revolutionary Alexander Kerensky, became part of the Provisional Government formed after the February Revolution.

Already in October 1915 Lenin He wrote The party’s comrade Alexander Shlyapnikov: “From Russia, they testify to the growth of the revolutionary mood and movement, although this, apparently, is not yet the beginning of the revolution.” In an Inessa Armand in a letter of December 16, 1916, the leader of the Bolsheviks, saying that he received news from Petrograd, noted: "The mood, they write, archire -revolutionary." In February 1917, in a letter of the same Armand, he already I referred On news from Moscow: "They write that the mood of the masses is good, that chauvinism is clearly decam and that, probably, there will be a holiday on our street."

However, it would be wrong to say that Lenin at that time was completely confident in the ambulance in Russia and the opportunity to return there. In letters to relatives for the same period, he admitted that he would have to live in Switzerland for a long time. So, in a letter to his Shurin, Mark Elizarov (husband of Anna Ulyanova) of February 18 or 19, 1917 Lenin set out The project of the Pedagogical Encyclopedia publication, which could be in demand in Russia, and asked to find possible investors.

So, on the one hand, Lenin, living in exile, carefully monitored the situation in his homeland and saw there the prerequisites for a possible revolution. On the other hand, even in February 1917, he was not sure when exactly this revolution would occur, assuming that it would be necessary to wait for more than one year.

Photo on the cover: frame from the movie "October" (Wikimedia Commons)

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What do our verdicts mean?

Read on the topic:

1. "Bitter". What to read about Lenin
2. Arzamas. Who is Lenin?
3. Did Lenin say: “Let the 90% of the Russian people die, if only 10% survived to the world revolution”?