Is it true that in Ukraine there will be 300,000 dead soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine?

In mid -May 2023, Telegram was widely dispersed that the Ukrainian football Association announced matches dedicated to the memory of the dead soldiers. The authors of the posts emphasized that thanks to this, the real losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine became known. We checked the authenticity of such publications.

The viral posts contain a video with the logo of the Ukrainian Football Association (UAF). Against the background of the stands, the credits are shown that reports on the holding of three matches in the memory of “300,000 heroes fallen for Ukraine”. Further, the video shows the schedule of matches and the place of their conduct is indicated: Kyiv, the NSC Olympic. Separately, it is noted that the games will be held "at empty stadiums." 

In the evening of May 15, this video Published In the Telegram channel of TV presenter Vladimir Solovyov (284,000 views). The signature of the post says that the video was deleted by the UAF immediately after the publication, since it contained information about 300,000 murdered military, and it was reported that Robert Francis Kennedy Jr., “Biden’s main rival, for the primaries of the US Party”, was announced by the latter. Solovyov also writes that "in November, the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Lyain was criticized for publication, and then deleting a video containing an assessment of 100,000 killed Ukrainian military, which caused a negative reaction of Kyiv."

By noon on May 18, by data Telemetr, more than 240 publications came out, fully or partially duplicate the message of the Solovyov channel; According to TGSTAT, their coverage is above 5 million views. Received this plot of some popularity outside Telegram: for example, in VK And on row "Garbage" sites.

There is neither a short nor a long video about the holding of three commemorative matches in Kyiv neither on the official channels of the Association on YouTube, nor in the web archings of these channels. There are no such messages on site UAF, and in the official Instagram account Published refutation. At the same time Design Shorts videos on the official YouTube channel UAF are quite different from the video from the video from the publications we analyzed by the quality of the image, fonts and style elements.  

The earliest publication about the memory matches, which was “verified”, became fast In the closed channel "Before everyone else. Well, almost. Special operation ” - he appeared on May 15 at 11:15 pm Moscow time (seven and a half hours before Solovyov). It did not mention von der Lyaine and Kennedy Jr., but in addition to the video in the post, screenshots of this video were published in the SHORTS section on the UAF YouTube channel, the comments under it and Storiz supposedly from the official account of the association on Instagram. In the Storiz screenshot, the schedule of matches with the signature “Scabs” (“canceled”) was published, but the design of the story in the official UAF account, as in YouTube, is withstanding in a certain format and does not correspond to what is shown in the screenshots in Telegram. 

Storiz from the official UAF account (right)

Screenshots of comments and section Shorts also do not cause confidence. Search by nickname commentators leads mainly to empty accounts, probably created exclusively for commenting (one nickname does not exist at all NowhereIn addition to the above screenshot). With rare exceptions, the short videos of the UAF channel are gaining about 1000 views, so the number of 123,000 views of the roller and 2000 comments on screenshots implies greater activity of users and, probably, a certain number of reposts. But no signs of posting links to rollers, as we have already said above, are not. As there are no traces of a surge in user activity on the channel. 

Analysis of the traffic of YouTube channel UAF for April-May 2023

In addition to the technical characteristics of video and screenshots, the text of the credits also causes doubts about the authenticity of information. Ukrainian factor Markthat its authors incorrectly translated the word “fallen” (“Palikh” instead of the correct “flying”). And we note a logical inconsistency: the video first indicates one venue for matches, the NSC Olympic, and then the phrase “with thoroughs of herds” is used, as if there are several stadiums (this is very similar to a mistake when translating the phrase “with empty stands”). However, the emphasis itself is that the matches will be held with empty stands is illogical - in wartime all matches in Ukraine are held Without spectators. Finally, a frame with empty stands of the Kyiv sports complex "Olympic", used as a background video, Filmed Ukrainian blogger Oleg Totsky back in 2013. 

Robert Kennedy Jr. is first mentioned along with this video, apparently in the post of Telegram channel "Freshness", Published two hours after" before all "and five and a half hours to Solovyov. The figure of 300,000, which occupies the central place in all posts about memory matches, was indeed voiced by Kennedy Jr.-an activist of the anti-infruction and nephew of US President John Kennedy. He voiced this number of Ukrainians who died at the front interview Freddie Sayers on May 3, 2023, without referring to the sources. It is not possible to evaluate the number of those who died during the fighting at the moment - the data published by officials of any of the parties to the conflict is probably distorted, and open calculations can only be indirect, while at the same time more or less Transparent. Not based on sources, Kennedy's statement contradicts all the available data on losses. 

Different from Russian and Ukrainian and approximately coinciding with each other, the intelligence of the UK and the United States, as well as these European offices indicate the number of dead military ones, are several times lower. So, in the period from November 2022 in March 2023 officials in Europe and the United States estimated the losses of the Ukrainian army at 100,000 - 120,000 people killed and wounded. By the way, it was from here that the reservation of von der Lyeen came - she mixed up combat losses and the number of those killed, for which she apologized and I did not hide The fact of editing the video with her statement (a reservation itself was cut out of the video). The number voiced by Kennedy does not look adequate because even taking into account a sharp growth due to the mobilization of 300,000 dead would be almost half current the number of Armed Forces of Ukraine in Ukrainian data and more than half - according to estimates of the comparative research Statista based on the data of the Stockholm Institute for Research of Peace Problems (Sipri). 

To complete the picture, we note that Robert Francis Kennedy Jr., who, in many publications with the supposedly video, UAF is called the main competitor of Joe Biden on the primaries of the US Democratic Party, is not such (the main competitor), to talk about this at least prematurely, and as a maximum-unreasonably. Firstly, not all alleged candidates have yet announced participation in the primaries, which will begin only in February 2024. Secondly, recent surveys show that Kennedy's rating is very far from high: by data A regular survey of the Big Village agency, only 7.3% of respondents from among the supporters of the Democratic Party believe that he should become a candidate for the presidency. For comparison, Biden has 30.4%, the senator from Vermont Bernie Sanders-15%, the Vice President Kamaly Harris-11.8%, the Minister of Transport Pitt Buttijich-7.7%. Probably, Kennedy Jr.'s weaving to the plot about memory matches is largely due to the fact that during the pandemia of Covid-19 he Sicked The anti -inferiorities, including the Russian -speaking Internet, and his name sounds quite solid (a member of a family known in the United States and beyond its borders), so that the activist plays the role of authority. In addition, Kennedy Jr. since the announcement of participation in the primaries became The constant hero of the Russian pro -government press.

As a result, we have a mix of a video mounted on the frame of 2013 with lexical and logical errors, fake screenshots, a number of distortions and one assumption from a well-known conspiracyologist, not based on any authoritative or checked sources. Funny incident: the reliability of the video (however, very peculiar) Refuted closely connected With the Russian authorities, the Ministry of Pravda channel, which impersonates a factory project.

Image on the cover: Valery Grandfather. File: Kyiv NSC OLIMPIYSKYI 6.jpg, CC by-SA 3.0

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