Is it true that the World One supercomputer predicted the death of humanity?

News has spread across the Internet that a supercomputer has predicted the end of the world in 2050. We decided to check if this is true.

The news about the predicted death of humanity was published by dozens of Russian news publications: “News», "Gazeta.ru», "Moscow 24», "Notebook», "Russian newspaper», "RIA Novosti" - almost all with reference to a British tabloid Daily Star. Some were also noted publicationsspecializing in news science And technologies. Users of social networks also wrote about this - Twitter, Facebook And VK.

The World One computer simulation program was developed by a Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) professor, pioneer of digital computing and founder of the field of system dynamics. Jay Forrester back in the early 1970s. It was then that the same forecast was made, which the Russian media presented as news in November 2022.

A team of researchers from MIT, students of Forrester, conducted experiment: Scientists loaded data on human civilization in development into a computer (population size, level of environmental pollution, amount of natural resources, etc.) since 1900. The customer and sponsor of the study was "Roman Club"is a non-profit organization where included scientists, economists, businessmen, former heads of state and other influential people. The results of the experiment were presented in the book "Limits to growth"

The forecast was actively discussed again in 2018, when the ABC television channel published on YouTube a report that was filmed and broadcast in 1973. In it, the journalist demonstrates graphs constructed by the program and comments on them. So, he really says that the state of the planet will become critical by 2020, the standard of living will drop to almost zero, and environmental pollution will be such that it will begin to kill people, as a result of which the planet's population will decline to below 1900 levels. By the way, in 1900 the population amounted to 2 billion people, which is quite far from the end of humanity. And yes, the reporter notes that if nothing changes, by 2040–2050, “civilized life as we know it will cease to exist.” This is a rather gloomy forecast, but it is clear that this phrase is not talking about the complete extinction of humanity or the end of the world, but only about the end of the civilized life we ​​are accustomed to, with its comfort and standards of consumption. It is likely that this video is what articles in the Daily Star and other media outlets are based on, as they use quotes very close to what the ABC journalist says.

However, it is worth noting that this is only one of 12 possible development scenarios that researchers received during the experiment. That is, in fact, they did not make any unambiguous “forecasts” or “predictions”, but only calculated options for how life on Earth would develop depending on various conditions. The darkest scenario, which was widely reported in the media, is likely, according to the computer program, if no significant changes occur (that is, if humanity does not radically reconsider its way of life or makes any technological discoveries that can change the development of civilization and its relationship with the environment).

Thirty years later, the authors of the original study decided repeat it by adding current data to the program. The adjusted results still contain nothing about the end of the world and the complete extinction of humanity. According to them, population decline is indeed likely due to the economic crisis. But this does not at all mean the death of humanity, which the media fears. 

Modern scientists and researchers in general see some coincidences between what was “predicted” in 1973 and the events that actually happened. But despite the fact that they are not positive, almost none of them talk about the death of humanity, the end of the world and other apocalyptic prospects. As for population decline, it is enough to note that fact, that just, in mid-November 2022, the eight billionth person was born on Earth. 

Thus, the media not only presented information from the 1970s as news, but also misinterpreted it or deliberately used clickbait headlines about the death of humanity and the end of the world, while the study in question did not contain such categorical forecasts. 

Cover photo: ABC

Mostly not true

What do our verdicts mean?

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