Is the report true about US plans to provoke war and an energy crisis in Europe?

A report allegedly written by the American think tank RAND Corporation in January 2022 has leaked online. It talks about US plans to weaken Germany, provoking a military conflict and an energy crisis in Europe. We have verified the authenticity of this report.

The report was published by the Swedish publication Nya Dagbladet on September 13, 2022 under the title “Shocking document: how the United States planned the war and energy crisis in Europe.” This report, allegedly prepared by the American think tank RAND Corporation, talks about US plans to destroy the European economy through a provoked Russian attack on Ukraine. This news was spread by several Russian Media, including "Russian newspaper" And Russia Today. Russian Embassy in Sweden too shared link to an article by Nya Dagbladet, causing a wave critics by Twitter users.

Published by Nya Dagbladet periodically publishes articles about the dangers of vaccinations, Holocaust denial, and how ethnic diversity leads to “white genocide.” On September 13, 2022, Nya Dagbladet published a “shocking document” - a confidential “research report” allegedly created in January 2022 by the American RAND Corporation and addressed to the White House Chief of Staff, the Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs, the US State Department, the CIA, the National Security Agency and the US Democratic National Committee.

The published document is only the first four pages of the report, containing its brief retelling. The remaining pages are missing. The summary contains four sections: the first (“Weaken Germany, Strengthen the USA”) describes how Germany is gaining economic and political strength and may eventually become a rival to the United States. The second (“Weaknesses in the economies of Germany and the EU”) says that stopping Russian energy supplies to Germany will cause a crisis throughout the European Union. The third section (“Controlled Crisis”) describes US plans to provoke Russian aggression in Ukraine: “The only possible way to guarantee Germany’s refusal of energy supplies from Russia is to involve both sides in a military conflict in Ukraine. Our further actions in this country will inevitably lead to a military response from Russia. The Russians clearly will not be able to leave the massive pressure of the Ukrainian army on the unrecognized republics of Donbass unanswered. This will make it possible to declare Russia an aggressor and apply a previously prepared package of sanctions to it.” Finally, the final section (“Expected Consequences”) predicts the collapse of European financial markets, a massive migration of skilled workers from Europe to the United States, and the strengthening of the power of the Democratic Party.

A few days after the January report appeared online, the RAND Corporation called its fake. The RAND statement itself does not confirm that the document is fake, but several other details raise serious doubts about its authenticity.

• First, in all RAND research reports, available on the website, the names of the authors are indicated. And on the first page of the January report, neither the authors nor the title are indicated.
• Secondly, the text contains a lot of factual, stylistic and grammatical errors. For example, the second paragraph states: “the positions of the Democratic Party in Congress and the Senate in the upcoming elections.” The author was clearly referring to the Senate and House of Representatives, which together make up the US Congress.
• In addition, the report, allegedly written in January 2022, states: “Thanks to our clear actions, it was possible to block the commissioning of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.” But the project was blocked Germany only in February 2022 - in response to Russia’s recognition of the DPR and LPR. And in January, on the contrary, the US presidential administration voted against the introduction of new sanctions regarding the gas pipeline.
• Another mistake is using the abbreviation U.S. to indicate the name of the country. In official documents U.S. used only as an adjective (for example, U.S. military), and for the name of a country, United States is used exclusively.
• In the January report, the author speaks on behalf of the United States several times, using the pronoun “we.” For example, “If one day we leave Europe” or “we have lost a real opportunity to influence the discussion of intergovernmental decisions.” In published reports RAND authors use “we” only to mean “collective of authors.”
• Another oddity can be seen in the copyright information on the second page of the report. It says: “Unauthorized posting of this publication on the Internet is prohibited; A direct link to the report web page on rand.org is encouraged.” If this report is confidential, then it cannot be posted on rand.org and its distribution cannot be encouraged in any way.
• You can also notice numerous errors in the use of articles and the British spelling of the word neutralise (instead of the American neutralize). If this report was actually addressed to senior officials in the White House, it should have passed at least a spell check.

This number of inconsistencies indicates that the report was most likely not written by the RAND Corporation, but by an unknown person for propaganda purposes. Although most Russian-language publications cite Nya Dagbladet’s article, we were able to find a source that published the report before the Swedish newspaper. On September 12, YouTuber John Mark Dougan uploaded video entitled “Shocking confidential report leaked! Now it all makes sense!” (“Shocking confidential report leaked! Now everything is clear!”). In the video, the author reads and comments on a report he allegedly received from an anonymous informant. Under the video the author gives link to Yandex.Disk, where on September 12 he uploaded scanned pages of the report.

John Dugan is a former American military and police officer who received political asylum in Russia in 2016. IN blog the United Russia party wrote:

“John Dugan suffered in his homeland for his heightened sense of justice. After he learned about the crimes of his colleagues, he did not hide them, but immediately contacted the FBI. However, instead of taking action, intelligence agencies began hunting for Dugan himself. Fleeing persecution, John had to leave his homeland in a hurry and wearing a woman’s wig.”

According to American publications, Dugan posted personal data of 14,000 federal agents, police officers and intelligence officers on the Internet. After this, the FBI raided Dugan's house, and, fearing punishment, he fled to Russia. Since then, Dugan has been leading blog And page on VKontakte, where he periodically publishes posts in support of the Russian military operation in Ukraine and their own investigations - for example, about the US government funding of biological laboratories in Eastern Europe.

We don't know whether Dugan authored the RAND report or received it from someone else. But, taking into account the inconsistencies in the report itself and the dubious source of its distribution, it can be said with a high degree of probability that the report published by Dugan has nothing to do with the RAND Corporation.

Cover image: Nya Dagbladet

Fake

What do our verdicts mean?

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3. Is it true that the United States promised Gorbachev not to expand NATO to the east?