Is the Polish intelligence report on the catastrophic state of the Ukrainian army true?

On Russian social networks, a summary of the report allegedly published by the Polish Intelligence Agency (AW) was dispersed. The report tells that the real losses of Ukraine, noting that the Armed Forces of Ukraine had a “catastrophic position”. We checked whether AW published such a report.

Russian Telegram channels distributed A brief presentation a report allegedly drawn up by the Poland Intelligence Agency (Agencja Wywiaudu, AW). The posts say that "according to the document, a catastrophic position has developed in the formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine." Further, the report allegedly describes in detail the deplorable state of the Armed Forces and notes that the Ukrainian government is trying to hide the real state of affairs from opponents and allies. In total, Telegram Posts with a summary of the report scored more than a million views (channel "Welders" - Almost 900,000, "Solovyov" - 290,000, "Colonelcassad" - 252,000, "Sheikh Tamir" - 132 000). Several Russian media (for example, "Tsargrad", RIA Fan And "News Front") Also quoted the Polish report in their publications.

All the publications we found with the mention of the report indicate that the source of information is the Polish intelligence agency: “The information came from the Polish Intelligence Agency”, “The Polish Agency reports”, “The released data of the Polish intelligence agency indicates”, etc. Judging by the wording, the report should be in the open access. Nevertheless, none of the publications gives a link to the original report in Polish. There are several publications of the same summary in social networks on Polish And Englishwho almost literally repeat the Russian text. But since Russian-speaking Telegram poles were published earlier, most likely, Polish and English options are just translations of the Russian-speaking original.

Not on site AW, not on its pages in social networks, neither in the Polish media mentions there were no reports.

According to the abstract from Russian telegram channels, the main theses of the report are as follows:

1. Ukrainian troops lose more than 300 people a day, while the Ukrainian government hides a real number of losses to prevent panic among the population.
2. Thanks to the exact blows of Russia on the headquarters and bases of the Armed Forces, over the past three months, about 4600 best Ukrainian military have died: senior officers, instructors and mercenaries.
3. Since Ukrainian soldiers who are fighting in the Donbass - from Private to the commander of the battalion - are poorly prepared, foreign advisers from the USA, Great Britain and Canada are commanded.
4. The President of Zelensky ordered at all costs to hold the line of Slavyansk - Kramatorsk - Toretsk until the end of August 2022.
5. 30,000 Ukrainian military are special training in Poland, Great Britain and Germany. By the end of August, four new brigades will be formed from them. At the same time, the Polish special services “skeptical of Kyiv’s statements about the preparation of the indicated four brigades in Ukraine” and believe that Ukraine is misleading the allies in order to obtain new weapons.
6. Ukraine expects that Poland will introduce two of its brigades to the west of Ukraine - “6 OTDBR and 25 ODSHBR”.
7. The American howitzers of the M-777 set by Kyiv are used for other purposes, instead of defense, Ukrainians use guns to fire cities. In addition, the Ukrainian military is not able to manage complex artillery systems, so foreign hired instructors lead them in positions.

Such a set of theses is more reminiscent of a selection of publications of Russian media than intelligence of the Polish special services. We cannot accurately assess the reliability of most statements based on conflicting data in open sources. Therefore, we only share observations according to some of the points of the abstract.

The first point - more than 300 Ukrainian fighters per day - contradicts all the estimates mentioned in the Polish media. May 31 Zelensky saidthat Ukraine loses 60-100 fighters per day. June 9 Advisor to the Office of Zelensky Mikhail Podolyak declaredthat daily losses are 100-200 people. June 15, the head of the United Committee of the Chiefs of Staff of the US Armed Forces Mark Mill reportedthat the Armed Forces of Ukraine lose about 100 people per day and wounded - about 100-300. And July 22 Zelensky saidthat Ukraine has reduced losses and now loses about 30 fighters per day. Not a single Polish media mentions the number of 300 killed, allegedly specified in the AW report. At the same time, Russian media They wrotethat the number 60-100 killed, called Zelensky at the end of May, is three times underestimated and actually amounts to 300 dead per day.

The second paragraph - on the strikes of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on the command staff of the Armed Forces - contradicts numerous messages Polish media that Russia destroys civil objects in Ukraine. President and Prime Minister of Poland more than once condemned Russia's actions in relation to civilians. We were not able to find a single publication of the Polish media that would mention the destruction of military bases and headquarters of the Armed Forces.

Clauses number three and five - about foreign mercenaries and training Ukrainians in Poland - seem dubious. From the first days of the armed conflict with Russia Poland was One of the most important allies of Ukraine. It is unlikely that the Polish intelligence service would release military information that could harm their military plans. At the end of April, the former commander in chief of the Polish army condemned British Prime Minister Boris Johnson for a public statement on training Ukrainian soldiers in Poland. According to the Polish general, Johnson has risked the success of the military operation and the life of soldiers with his statements.

The sixth point - about the entry of two Polish brigades to the west of Ukraine - received special attention in the Russian media. The day after the adversary appears, a frequent guest of Russian talk shows Yakov Kedmi, who is a military expert and a former Israeli intelligence officer, wrote In its Telegram channel about the imminent entry of the 6th and 25th Polish brigades to Ukraine. Kedmi's words were replicated by dozens of Russian publications: "Political scientist Kedmi announced the invasion of the Polish army to Western Ukraine in August." Part of the media wrote that Poland wants to help Ukraine release part of the Ukrainian forces to transfer to Donbass. Others repeated already sounding in the media opinion The Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that Poland plans to take part of the territories of Western Ukraine under its protectorate. These statements Refuted Press Secretary of the Minister-Cordrator of the Special Services of Poland Stanislav Zharin.

The abbreviations of the Polish brigades 6 ATBR and 25 ODSHBR seem implausible. Such designations are used in the Russian military nomenclature: a separate airborne brigade (OTDBR) and a separate airborne assault brigade (ODSHBR). In the Polish army 6th brigade It is called the 6th Airborne Brigade, 6 VDB (6 Brygada Powietrznodesantowa, 6 BPD), and 25th brigade -“25th Air Cavalry Brigade”, 25 VKB (25 Brygada Kawalerii Powietrznej, 25 BKPOW).

Taking into account such a number of dubious statements and inconsistencies, and most importantly, the absence of the original source, it can be with a high degree of probability to argue that the mentioned AW report, and the author of the fake abstract is one of the Russian Telegram channels. And already from there he was copied by dozens of Russian media and users of social networks.

Image on the cover: Wikimedia Commons

Fake

What do our verdicts mean?

Read on the topic:

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2. Did the American general affirm that the loss of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is up to 200,000 people?