The information is distributed that a large and dangerous outbreak of coronavirus is now fixed in the completely vaccinated giblatar, and this whole situation demonstrates the uselessness of the vaccine to protect against the disease. We decided to check if this is really so.

Some media outlets write about a difficult situation in Gibraltar (for example, "Red Spring"), but mainly information distribute Bloggers. Writethat “the number of new Covid cases per day increased by more than 2500%. Pandemia vaccinated! ” or “Vaccines do not work. Strange people. They do not work anywhere. The incidence in all blocking countries is only growing. There is a case of Israel, the case of Mongolia, Case Gibraltar, Britain and heaps of other countries. ” Materials of bloggers Come out with headings “Epic Fale of Fashion Sloven: Gibraltar, vaccinated by 118%, flew into a new wave of the so -called. Covid-19 ". The main numbers from these messages are as follows:
- 118% of the population is vaccinated (an excess of 100% is explained by the introduction of booster doses);
- incidence - up to 80 people per day (as if in Russia officially ill 300,000 per day. Or only in Moscow - 26,000 each);
- in Gibraltar 630 active cases - is ill at least 1.9% of the population;
- 25% of all deaths from coronavirus that have occurred over the past eight months have happened over the past month.

It is worth noting that the statement about the outbreak in Mongolia, which happened, despite the high level of vaccination, we already Disassembled. Its authors were manipulated with statistics, and we issued a “untruth” verdict. A statement of seriously ill in Israel Disassembled Our colleagues, they made the verdict "Manipulation". There, bloggers did not distinguish between completely vaccinated and only began the process of immunization, and also did not take into account the severity of the disease and the total number of minors not vaccinated at that time in the general structure of the population.

Due to the fact that Gibraltar is not a state, but overseas territory Great Britain, on some statistical resources, data on it are not submitted (for example, there are no data on the incidence of OURworldindata, only vaccination). Incidence data by days at the same time There is On WHO resources, it is they that we will use in the future.

The level of sequencing of the virus genome is also relatively small, which makes it difficult to determine the predominant option. Due to the fact that Gibraltar borders only on Spain, we can assume a significant similarity of the prevalence of options, therefore, to determine this parameter, we will use data from Spain.

Chronologically so coincided that vaccination became widely accessible almost at the same time from distribution "Delta" - most contagious (contagious) from well -studied variations of coronavirus. Vaccination It has begun At the end of January, and "Delta" I became spread in the spring.

To begin with, we will deal with the percentage of vaccination. The structure of the population is as follows: children under 14 years old They make up 20.24%, and a group of 15–24-year-olds-13.07%. Vaccination of 12-15-year-olds Started A little over a month ago. In Gibraltar Vaccinated 121% of the population, non -residents and boster doses are included in this figure. In total, more than 96,000 doses of vaccine have been introduced in the country.

Eat data The fact that at least 15,000 citizens of Spain working in Gibraltar were proposed to be insolent exactly there. Therefore, their full vaccination would take 30,000 doses, because two doses per person are taken into account. In order to assume how many of them could take advantage of the offer, Take it The average level of vaccination in Spain is 80.4%. That is 12,600 people, or 25,200 doses.

It turns out that approximately 71,000 doses to all citizens were introduced. Of these, another 16,000 - Booster Doses. About 55,000 doses remain. The population of the territory for 2021 It is 29 516 people. This means that either about 2500 people did not receive vaccines at all, or more than 3,000 are vaccinated with only one dose.

We get the average structure of immunity:

16,000 is the highest immunity, since proventhat six months after the two -component Pfizer vaccine - BIONTECH, mainly used in Gibraltar, the level of protection without a booster dose is significantly reduced;

9000 - 11,000 - the average immunity, most likely, received both components about six months ago (active vaccination campaign completed By the end of March);

2500–4500 - vaccine immunity is not formed.

The Gibraltar government at the same time represents the breakdown of the sick group and vaccine status. For example, on November 29, the ratio was this: out of 16 positive tests 11 are unevaccinated, seven of which (more than half) belong to those age groups, vaccination in which is not yet allowed (0–5 and 5-10 years). At the same time in Report For November 27, you can see that in the breakdown by the age of the unevaccinated, groups 30–35, 35–40, 40–45 are presented, and in Report For November 26, there is even a representative of the group 60–65. Thus, far from 100% of the adult population was generally vaccinated, and a significant part of the vaccinated ones did not receive a booster dose necessary for full protection against Delta.

pic.twitter.com/dt3rzgvmye
- HM GOVT of GIBRALTAR (@GibAltargov) NOVEMBER 28, 2021

This can be explained by the data regarding new cases of infection.

At the same time, from the data on the WHO website it is clear that the situation in the fall of 2021 is clearly better than in the winter of 2020–2021. The maximum of cases identified on the day throughout the pandemic falls on January 1 - 180 cases. At the same time, on the peak day of the fall of 2021 - November 23 - only 101 cases are accounted for. Recall that the population of the territory for 2021 It is 29 516 people. Therefore, the incidence in the intersection of 100,000 - 342 people. Compare with the Russian situation: On November 23, 33,996 cases were recorded in the country, and the peak value of the fall was 41,335 sick per day. Population Russia - 146.24 million people. It turns out that on November 23, the proportion of the sick for 100,000 was 23.2 people, and on November 6 - 28.2. At first glance, it really does not look in Gibraltar's favor.

Now we’ll deal with active cases. IN Gibraltare On November 29-694, every 49th citizen is sick, 2059 by 100 00. In Russia-534 007, each 273rd, or 366 per 100,000.

However, in addition to the number of confirmed cases, any epidemic has other indicators. For example, mortality. For the entire autumn increase in incidence in the country, one person died - October 16. That is, mortality for the period from September 1 to November 29 (almost three months) is 3.38 people per 100,000. In the same situation in Russia, a little less than 5,000 (4,942.91, to be precise), should die during the same period of time. However, if we turn to statistics mortality, then we will see that only during the period from 25 to 29 of November 6145 patients died. In total, 87,955 people were killed from September 1. That is, mortality per 100,000 amounted to 60.14 people, which is almost 20 times higher than in Gibraltar.

Thus, the figures for the incidence, indeed, are relatively high in the intersection of 100,000 people, while the mortality rate in the country is extremely low. That is, there is a manipulation of data.

Finally, we will analyze the statement "25% of all deaths from the Covid that have occurred over the past eight months have happened over the past month." We turn to the mortality schedule (above). The period of eight months is from April to date. For eight months, there were four lethal cases. Indeed, one of them (25%) is in October (more precisely, on October 16, apparently, the statement was made until November 16). The remaining three cases (or 75%) occurred in August. In fact, the statement cannot be called false, one of four is really 25%. However, since only interest in it, it looks quite menacing.

Compare the following sentences.

As a percentage:

About Gibraltar: "25% of all deaths from Covid that have occurred over the past eight months have happened over the past month."

ABOUT Russia: "12.43% of all deaths from Covid that have occurred over the past eight months have happened over the past month."

In absolute values:

About Gibraltar: "Over the past eight months, four people have died, one of them in the last month."

About Russia: "Over the past eight months, 268,736 people have died, of which 33,418 in the last month."

In relative (100,000):

About Gibraltar: "Over the past eight months, 13.5 people have died per 100,000, of which 3.38 over the past month."

About Russia: "Over the past eight months, 183.7 people have died per 100,000, of which 22.85 over the last month."

In relative numbers, the situation ceases to look frightening in Gibraltar, while it becomes more dangerous for Russia.

Thus, in all statements regarding the situation in Gibraltar, manipulations were allowed. The country has a truly high level of vaccination, but by no means absolute, moreover, there are completely unlimited groups - children. They make up a significant percentage of sick. With relatively high incidence rates, the mortality rate is quite low - 20 times less than in the same period in Russia. And taking into account the Delta version dominant in the world, one can even say that a high level of vaccination provided the population with a slight current and a low number of deaths.