Information is spreading that a large and dangerous outbreak of coronavirus is now being recorded in the fully vaccinated Gibraltar, and this entire situation demonstrates the futility of the vaccine to protect against the disease. We decided to check if this is actually true.

Some media outlets write about the difficult situation in Gibraltar (for example, "Red Spring"), but mostly information distribute bloggers. They writethat “the number of new COVID cases per day has increased by more than 2,500%. Vaccinated pandemic!” or “Vaccines don’t work. Strange people. They don't work anywhere. The incidence in all vaccinated countries is only growing. There is the case of Israel, the case of Mongolia, the case of Gibraltar, Britain and a bunch of other countries.” Blogger materials come out with the headlines “Epic fashion failure: Gibraltar, 118% vaccinated, flew into a new wave of the so-called. Covid-19." The main figures from these messages are as follows:
— 118% of the population has been vaccinated (exceeding 100% is explained by the introduction of booster doses);
- incidence - up to 80 people per day (as if in Russia there were officially 300,000 people falling ill per day. Or in Moscow alone - 26,000);
- there are 630 active cases in Gibraltar - at least 1.9% of the population is sick;
— 25% of all coronavirus deaths that occurred in the last eight months occurred in the last month.

It is worth noting immediately that the statement about the outbreak in Mongolia, which occurred despite a high level of vaccination, we have already sorted it out. Its authors manipulated statistics, and we rendered a verdict of “false.” Statement on seriously ill people in Israel sorted it out our colleagues, they rendered a verdict of “manipulation.” There, bloggers did not distinguish between those who were fully vaccinated and those who had just begun the immunization process, and also did not take into account the severity of the disease and the total number of minors who were not vaccinated at that time in the general population structure.

Due to the fact that Gibraltar is not a state, but overseas territory Great Britain, some statistical resources do not provide data on it (for example, OurWorldInData does not have data on morbidity cases, only on vaccination). Data on morbidity by day There is on WHO resources, which is what we will use in the future.

There is also a relatively low level of genome sequencing of the virus, making it difficult to determine the predominant variant. Due to the fact that Gibraltar borders only Spain, we can assume significant similarity in the prevalence of variants, so we will use data from Spain to determine this parameter.

Chronologically, it coincided that vaccination became widely available almost at the same time as dissemination "Deltas" - most contagious (infectious) from well-studied variations of coronavirus. Vaccination started at the end of January, and "Delta" became spread in the spring.

First, let's look at the vaccination rate. The population structure is as follows: children under 14 years of age make up 20.24%, and the group of 15-24 year olds - 13.07%. Vaccination of 12–15 year olds started a little over a month ago. In Gibraltar vaccinated 121% of the population, this figure includes non-residents and those who received booster doses. In total, more than 96,000 doses of the vaccine have been administered in the country.

Eat data that at least 15,000 Spanish citizens working in Gibraltar have been invited to get vaccinated there. Therefore, it would take 30,000 doses to fully vaccinate them, since two doses per person are taken into account. In order to estimate how many of them could take advantage of the offer, let's take The average vaccination rate in Spain is 80.4%. That is 12,600 people, or 25,200 doses.

It turns out that approximately 71,000 doses have been administered to all citizens. Of these, another 16,000 - booster doses. About 55,000 doses remain. Population of the territory for 2021 amounts to 29,516 people. This means that either about 2,500 people did not receive the vaccine at all, or more than 3,000 were vaccinated with only one dose.

We get the average structure of immunity:

16,000 - the highest immunity, since proventhat six months after the two-component Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, mostly used in Gibraltar, the level of protection without a booster dose is significantly reduced;

9000 - 11,000 - average immunity, most likely both components received about six months ago (active vaccination campaign completed by the end of March);

2500–4500 - vaccine immunity is not formed.

The Government of Gibraltar provides a breakdown of cases by age group and vaccine status every day. For example, on November 29, the ratio was as follows: out of 16 positive tests, 11 were in unvaccinated people, seven of which (more than half) belonged to those age groups for which vaccination is not yet authorized (0-5 and 5-10 years). At the same time, in report for November 27, you can see that the breakdown by age of unvaccinated people includes groups 30–35, 35–40, 40–45, and in report for November 26 there is even a representative of the 60–65 group. Thus, far from 100% of the adult population was vaccinated at all, and a significant part of those vaccinated did not receive the booster dose necessary for full protection against Delta.

pic.twitter.com/dt3rZgvmye
— HM Govt of Gibraltar (@GibraltarGov) November 28, 2021

This may explain the data regarding new cases of infection.

At the same time, from the data on the WHO website it is clear that the situation in the fall of 2021 is clearly better than in the winter of 2020–2021. The maximum number of cases detected per day during the entire pandemic occurred on January 1 - 180 cases. However, on the peak day of autumn 2021 - November 23 - there were only 101 cases. Let us remind you that the population of the territory for 2021 amounts to 29,516 people. Therefore, the incidence rate per 100,000 is 342 people. Compare with Russian situation: On November 23, the country recorded 33,996 cases, and the autumn peak occurred on November 6 - 41,335 cases per day. Population Russia - 146.24 million people. It turns out that on November 23, the proportion of cases per 100,000 was 23.2 people, and on November 6 - 28.2. At first glance it looks really not in favor of Gibraltar.

Now let's look at the active cases. IN Gibraltar as of November 29 - 694, every 49th citizen is sick, 2059 per 100,00. In Russia - 534,007, every 273rd, or 366 per 100,000.

However, in addition to the number of confirmed cases, any epidemic has other indicators. For example, mortality. During the entire autumn rise in incidence in the country, one person died - on October 16. That is, the mortality rate for the period from September 1 to November 29 (almost three months) is 3.38 people per 100,000. In the same situation, a little less than 5,000 (4,942.91, to be exact) people should have died in Russia over the same period of time. However, if we look at statistics mortality, we will see that 6,145 patients died in the period from November 25 to November 29 alone. In total, 87,955 people have died since September 1. That is, the mortality rate per 100,000 was 60.14 people, which is almost 20 times higher than in Gibraltar.

Thus, the incidence figures are indeed relatively high per 100,000 people, while the mortality rate in the country is extremely low. That is, there is data manipulation.

Finally, let’s examine the statement “25% of all Covid deaths that occurred in the last eight months occurred in the last month.” Let's look at the mortality graph (above). The period of eight months is from April to today. There were four deaths in eight months. Indeed, one of them (25%) falls on October (more precisely, on October 16; apparently, the statement was made before November 16). The remaining three cases (or 75%) occurred in August. In fact, the statement cannot be called false; one out of four is really 25%. However, since it only contains interest, it looks quite threatening.

Compare the following sentences.

Percentage:

On Gibraltar: “25% of all Covid deaths in the last eight months occurred in the last month.”

ABOUT Russia: “12.43% of all covid deaths that occurred in the last eight months occurred in the last month.”

In absolute terms:

On Gibraltar: “Four people have died in the last eight months, one of them in the last month.”

About Russia: “Over the past eight months, 268,736 people have died, of which 33,418 died in the last month.”

In relative terms (per 100,000):

On Gibraltar: “In the last eight months, 13.5 people per 100,000 have died, with 3.38 in the last month.”

About Russia: “Over the past eight months, 183.7 people per 100,000 have died, of which 22.85 died in the last month.”

In relative terms, the situation ceases to look frightening in Gibraltar, but becomes more dangerous for Russia.

Thus, all statements regarding the situation in Gibraltar are subject to manipulation. The country has a really high level of vaccination, but it is by no means absolute, and there are also completely unimmunized groups - children. They make up a significant percentage of the sick. Despite relatively high morbidity figures, the mortality rate is quite low - 20 times less than for the same period in Russia. And taking into account the dominant Delta variant in the world, one can even say that the high level of vaccination provided the population with a mild course and a low number of deaths.