A synopsis of a report allegedly published by the Polish Intelligence Agency (AW) has circulated on Russian social networks. The report talks about supposedly real losses in Ukraine, noting that a “catastrophic situation” has developed in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. We checked whether AW published such a report.

Russian Telegram channels distributed summary report allegedly compiled by the Polish Intelligence Agency (Agencja Wywiadu, AW). The posts say that “according to the document, a catastrophic situation has developed in the formations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.” Further, the report allegedly describes in detail the deplorable state of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and notes that the Ukrainian government is trying to hide the real state of affairs from both opponents and allies. In total, Telegram posts with a summary of the report received more than a million views (channel "Welders" - almost 900,000, "Soloviev" — 290 000, "Colonelcassad" — 252 000, "Sheikh Tamir" - 132,000). Several Russian media (for example, "Tsargrad", RIA FAN And "News Front") also cited the Polish report in their publications.

All publications we found mentioning the report indicate that the source of information is the Polish Intelligence Agency: “the information came from the Polish Intelligence Agency,” “the Polish agency reports,” “the published data of the Polish intelligence agency indicates,” etc. Judging by the wording, the report should be in the public domain. However, none of the publications provides a link to the original report in Polish. On social networks there are several publications of the same abstract on Polish And English, which repeat the Russian text almost word for word. But since Russian-language Telegram posts were published earlier, most likely, the Polish and English versions are just translations of the Russian-language original.

Not at all website AW, nor on its pages in social networks, there were no mentions of the report in the Polish media.

According to abstracts from Russian Telegram channels, the main points of the report are as follows:

Ukrainian troops are losing more than 300 people per day, while the Ukrainian government is hiding the real number of losses to prevent panic among the population.
Thanks to precise Russian strikes on the headquarters and bases of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, over the past three months, about 4,600 of the best Ukrainian military personnel have been killed: senior officers, instructors and mercenaries.
Since the Ukrainian soldiers fighting in the Donbass - from privates to battalion commanders - are poorly trained, foreign advisers from the United States, Great Britain and Canada are commanding the fighting.
President Zelensky ordered to hold the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk-Toretsk line at all costs until the end of August 2022.
30,000 Ukrainian military personnel undergo special training in Poland, Great Britain and Germany. By the end of August, four new brigades will be formed from them. At the same time, Polish intelligence services are “skeptical about Kyiv’s statements about the training of these four brigades in Ukraine” and believe that Ukraine is misleading its allies in order to obtain new weapons.
Ukraine expects that Poland will introduce two of its brigades to the west of Ukraine - “6 Airborne Infantry Brigades and 25 Airborne Shock Brigades”.
The American M-777 howitzers supplied to Kyiv are not used for their intended purpose; instead of defense, Ukrainians use guns to shell cities. In addition, the Ukrainian military is not capable of managing complex artillery systems, so foreign hired instructors are in charge of their positions.

This set of theses is more reminiscent of a selection of Russian media publications than intelligence data from the Polish intelligence services. We cannot accurately assess the veracity of most statements based on conflicting data in public sources. Therefore, we are only sharing observations on some of the points in the summary.

The first point - about the death of more than 300 Ukrainian fighters per day - contradicts all estimates mentioned in the Polish media. May 31 Zelensky saidthat Ukraine is losing 60–100 fighters per day. June 9, adviser to Zelensky’s office Mikhail Podolyak statedthat daily losses amount to 100–200 people. June 15, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US Armed Forces Mark Milley reportedthat the Ukrainian Armed Forces lose about 100 people killed per day, and about 100–300 wounded. And on July 22 Zelensky saidthat Ukraine has reduced its losses and is now losing about 30 fighters a day. Not a single Polish media mentions the figure of 300 killed, allegedly indicated in the AW report. At the same time, Russian media wrotethat the number of 60–100 killed, named by Zelensky at the end of May, is underestimated by three times and in fact amounts to up to 300 dead per day.

The second point - about strikes by the Russian Armed Forces on the command headquarters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - contradicts numerous messages Polish media that Russia is destroying civilian objects in Ukraine. The President and Prime Minister of Poland also more than once condemned Russia's actions against civilians. We were unable to find a single publication in the Polish media that would mention the destruction of military bases and headquarters of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Points number three and five - about foreign mercenaries and training of Ukrainians in Poland - seem dubious. From the first days of the armed conflict with Russia, Poland was one of Ukraine's most important allies. It is unlikely that Poland's intelligence service would release military information that could harm their military plans. At the end of April, the former commander-in-chief of the Polish army condemned British Prime Minister Boris Johnson for his public statement about the training of Ukrainian soldiers in Poland. According to the Polish general, with his statements, Johnson put the success of the military operation and the lives of soldiers at risk.

*Visit of the President of the Republic of Poland to Kyiv, May 22, 2022. Source: website of the President of Ukraine*

The sixth point—the introduction of two Polish brigades into western Ukraine—received special attention in the Russian media. The day after the summary appeared, a frequent guest on Russian talk shows, Yakov Kedmi, introducing himself as a military expert and former Israeli intelligence officer, wrote in his Telegram channel about the imminent deployment of the 6th and 25th Polish brigades to Ukraine. Kedmi’s words were replicated by dozens of Russian publications: “Political scientist Kedmi announced the invasion of the Polish army into Western Ukraine already in August.” Part of the media wrote that Poland wants to help Ukraine free up part of the Ukrainian forces for transfer to Donbass. Others repeated what had already been said in the media opinion Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that in this way Poland plans to take part of the territories of Western Ukraine under its protectorate. These statements denied press secretary of the Minister-Coordinating Intelligence Services of Poland Stanislav Zharin.

The abbreviations of the Polish brigades 6 OVDBr and 25 ODShBr seem implausible. Such designations are used in Russian military nomenclature: separate airborne brigade (OVDBR) and separate air assault brigade (SDSB). In the Polish army 6th Brigade called "6th Airborne Brigade", 6 VDB (6 Brygada Powietrznodesantowa, 6 BPD), and 25th Brigade - “25th Air Cavalry Brigade”, 25 VKB (25 Brygada Kawalerii Powietrznej, 25 BKPow).

Taking into account such a number of dubious statements and inconsistencies, and most importantly, the lack of a primary source, it can be said with a high degree of probability that the mentioned AW report does not exist, and the author of the fake summary is one of the Russian Telegram channels. And from there it was copied by dozens of Russian media and social network users.

Cover image: Wikimedia Commons