An alarming information began to spread in the media that the mortality rate of the Covid-19 version, recently identified in New York, reaches 82%. We decided to check if the media correctly interpreted the data of scientists.

Many media told about this: RIA Fan, "Rambler", "Caucasus post". Information also dispersed into messengers and social networks. In addition to the statement of increased mortality, the publications also contained information that, according to the representative of the Center for Virology and Biotechnology "Vector", in Russia the option of "iot" has not yet been revealed.

To begin with, it is worth noting that although journalists, and sometimes speakers from scientific organizations, call the "iot" a strain, this is not entirely correct. "Yota", as before, "Alpha", "Beta", "Gamma", "Delta" and other less common mutations, Represents The option, or isolate, virus. There is no unequivocal consensus between virus-lists relative to the taxonomy of SARS-COV-2. However, in order for the new variety of the virus to receive the status of a strain, it still must go a considerable evolutionary path from its ancestor. In English literature and terminology WHO uses the concept of “option”, so we will follow their example.

The article in RIA FAN came out, for example, with the following heading: “This is alarming news: Gennady Onishchenko about 82% of the mortality of the Covid-19 Yota-Skamm.” This wording was completely disinformed by readers: the study was not about the mortality itself, but its increase relative to the previous one. At the same time, not everyone made such an error - for example, RBC Formulated This is: “The“ iot ”strain is able to increase the mortality rate from Covid-19 by 62–82% among the elderly, and RIA Novosti- So: “Scientists have appreciated the danger of Yota-Sktamm Coronavirus, which increases the risk of death by 82%.”

Option "iot", cell line b.1.526, whose first documented sample refers By November 15, 2020, was Designated (that is, it became called "Iotoy") on March 24, 2021. Thus, he is a little “younger” “Alpha” (b.1.1.7) and “deltas” (b.1.617.2), but “older” “lambda” (p.37), “aunt” (P.3) and “Eta” (b.1.525).

On August 12, the option "Yota" represented in 43 countries, it really is not yet in Russia, but it is already discovered In three countries with Russia a border - Georgia, Lithuania and China. WHO attributes him to the options “causing interest”. At the same time, Alpha and Delta belong to a more dangerous category - “causing concern”. "Iota" has One mutation in the S-Belya from “causing concern”-E484K, which is potentially Maybe Strengthen the ability of the virus to avoid antibodies. There are also three mutations related to “causing interest”. The greatest wariness of which is the S477N, as it Gives The possibility of the virus is more closely connected with ACE2 cell receptors, therefore, makes the virus more aggressive.

Iotus mutations of the option, screenshot of the site Outbreak.info

Mutations in the s-beel of the yota version, the screenshot of the site Outbreak.info

However, everything is not as scary as the heading of the media claims. Firstly, most publications did not pay attention to readers that the published article- Preprint, that is, a preliminary version of the article, not yet published in a reviewed scientific publication.

Secondly, to the methodology of the calculation of these 82% There is certain questions. Scientists use the Infection Fatality Ratio (IFR) parameter - an infectious mortality rating, that is, the attitude of the dead to all infected ones. In the meantime, the pandemic did not end, it would be More correct Use another parameter - Case Fatality Ratio (CFR), that is, a mortality ratio, or the ratio of deaths to all confirmed cases of diseases. Between the "confirmed" and "infected", by remark WHO, there is a big difference precisely during epidemics, since not all sick people fall into statistics, therefore, the IFR is almost guaranteed to exceed CFR.

Thirdly, journalists when writing articles sometimes missed an important detail: speech Walked Not about the general mortality from the "yota", but about the excess in the age group of 64–75 years of mortality from "yota" compared to other options. At the same time, scientists talk about an excess by 82% exclusively for the group of 64–75 years, while journalists Placed The heading is the number 82 as a universal indicator, without indicating the age group. If you translate from the academic language to universal, researchers have provided such data. If earlier in this age group, from every 100 sick, let's say one died, then almost two people die with an “iot” version of the same 100, or 82% more). For other age groups, the excess was as follows: 46% for people 45–64 years old and 62% for those older than 75 years.

Fourthly (and scientists Chew This is in its study), the comparison itself covers the period from November 2020 to April 2021. The “delta” version of the Delta was considered today “causing concern” Recognized WHO “causing interest” (which is lower in terms of danger) only on April 4, although the first documented samples dates back to October 2020. That is, most likely, cases of incidence and mortality from Delta could not be taken into account by the authors of the preprint in the total mass of cases.

Given the above facts, the most correct for the media would be the heading “according to the preliminary data of scientists, the comparative mortality of the“ iot ”version in relation to other options that circulated from November to April can increase by 82% in the age group of 64–75 years.”

Thus, the published preprint can become a full -fledged article in the reviewed journal, but may not become, since the methodology chosen by scientists is not quite consistent with the recommendations of WHO to calculate mortality. It should be borne in mind that the researchers compared the mortality of the “iot” at a time when Delta has not yet become a predominant option. Journalists gave news in too sensational and frightening. And some directly distorted the facts and misled the readers.